Dick Spotswood: Larkspur ferry parking expansion plan has luxury of time

Ferry services from Larkspur, Sausalito and Tiburon to the San Francisco Ferry Building is a Bay Area transit success story. Today, the ferries are a beloved Marin institution. What might the future bring?

When ferryboats were revived in 1970 with the Sausalito-San Francisco route, water transit was considered a novelty aimed at tourists.

In 1976, the Larkspur-San Francisco ferry route opened. Then, the boats were ridiculed in much the same way some today regard the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit District. In Marin, ferries were derided as a futile and expensive effort promoted by San Francisco politicians to get North Bay auto commuters off city streets.

That changed in 1982. As the bridge district’s history states, “After days of constant rain, mudslides closed Highway 101 from the evening of Jan. 4 through the evening of Jan. 6, Larkspur’s ferry carried a record number of commuters, reaching a high of 12,028 on Jan. 6. On Jan. 6 and 7, three additional vessels were chartered to assist with the high passenger demand.”

In an instant, it was clear that ferries offered the only means to reach the city if a natural disaster (such as a strong earthquake) blocked highway and bridge access.

Ridership grew. During peak periods, Larkspur route ridership exceeded maximum carrying capacity. The terminal’s 1,808 parking spaces were packed.

Then, the COVID-19 pandemic response changed the need to commute to San Francisco’s downtown for many. With the popularity of working remotely, the city experienced a rate of office workers returning at a lower rate than any American city. Ferry ridership crashed.

The harsh reality of American transit is that it takes a decade to make infrastructure improvements. For once, those institutional delays might be beneficial.

While future demand is unknown, the preliminary ferry parking “demand forecast” shows that in 2025, daily demand will be 1,100 parking spaces. The forecast for 2030 is a “low of 1,600” and a “high of 1,800 spaces.” That’s its current capacity.

It’ll take years to learn the long-term trend of the return of five-days-a-week office workers to San Francisco. That’s why we’ll benefit from the years it’ll take to complete environmental reviews, take public comment and do a wave analysis to determine whether the 13,000-foot-long Larkspur Channel can handle more than the currently permitted 42-daily ferry crossings.

The Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District forecasts that by 2040 the ferry terminal will need 3,800 parking spaces to accommodate a predicted doubling of ferry patronage. That presumes downtown San Francisco returns to its pre-pandemic level of employment plus a substantial increase.

District officials are looking at a parking expansion. It would include an elevated parking garage on the current site or a five-story garage next to the nearby SMART station.

The cycling community contends that there’s no need for more parking. Increased ferry patronage can be facilitated with enhanced bike and pedestrian access plus an expansion of the once-popular “ferry feeder” shuttle program.

The service expansion plan needs to include a closer look at how cycling and shuttle buses can attract more ferry-bound riders. Expanding bike parking at the ferry and completing the “first mile, last mile” pathway connections along the North-South Greenway from Central San Rafael are essential.

The demand study includes a chart indicating how ferry passengers accessed the Larkspur Terminal, Central Marin’s transportation hub.

In 2018 before the pandemic struck, those who arrived by car alone or carpooling measured at 79.4%; cyclists accounted for 7.3%; Those being dropped off or picked up came in at 5.5%; the feeder bus total was 2.4%; Golden Gate Transit bus was 2.3%; walking or rideshare services was 0.8%; and scooter was 0.02%.

This count was made before SMART’s Larkspur extension opened in December 2019 and three months before the March 2020 pandemic lockdown. There’s no denying that under all alternatives, accessing the ferry by car will be the principal means of access.

It’ll be years before this process is complete. If the optimistic view comes to pass, district officials will be ready to expand water transit.

Columnist Dick Spotswood of Mill Valley writes on local issues Sundays and Wednesdays. Email him at spotswood@comcast.net.