'In no way ready': Analyst warns shockwaves from Trump jury decision will upend election
Donald Trump’s jury is set to start deliberations in his hush money trial this week — and whatever its decision is, it's set to send shockwaves that could upend November’s election, an analyst wrote for MSNBC Monday.
“Whatever happens, America is in no way ready for the new chapter that a verdict — or lack thereof — in Trump’s case will usher in,” Hayes Brown wrote.
“Once the foreperson has announced the jury’s decision, any prior assumptions about the 2024 presidential race will need to be recalculated.”
Lawyers in the case, in which Trump faces 34 felony charges of business fraud involving allegations he paid an adult movie star to keep quiet about a sexual relationship the pair had, are set to start giving their closing arguments Tuesday.
After that, jury deliberations will begin.
“What I sense … is that whatever happens, America is in no way ready for the new chapter that a verdict — or lack thereof — in Trump’s case will usher in,” wrote Brown.
Brown laid out three likely options awaiting Trump. Conviction, acquittal or a deadlock resulting in a mistrial.
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He wrote that, up to now, the effect of a conviction on the election was based on hypotheticals. But, after the jury returns its verdict, voters’ decisions will be based on fact.
“We are now finally moving away from possibility to hard and fast reality, which may look very different than the predictions based on polling,” he said.
“And encouraging as those statistics may have been for Democrats, they still left unanswered some important questions. None of the polls … asked voters how an acquittal would affect their support for the former president, something that remains a possibility.
“Depending on where the jury lands, Trump, as he always has, will either praise or denounce the system. A conviction in a state court would be something he couldn’t undo even if he’s elected president again. It would be yet another asterisk next to his name, one more humiliation to add to the list. While it would be another grievance for him to seek revenge against, an appeal would be yet another costly distraction to a campaign already hemorrhaging money on his legal fees.
“And yet his supporters, following the lead of the spineless Republicans who have showed up at court to buoy him, may well shrug and cast their votes for a convicted criminal.”
"An acquittal, though, will be another supposed “total exoneration” — and this time it would be true."
He went on, “All of this is projection, of course, as we wait for the end of the yawning silence that has echoed since the defense, which only called one witness, rested Tuesday. In this liminal space, the future hangs by a thread. Guilty? Not guilty? A mistrial? Whichever it is, it will likely be more than we can truly wrap our heads around.”