Twins series preview: A divisional battle
Will this be a three-team race?
The Twins were expected to be frontrunners in the Central Division, having finished first in three of the past five seasons. But on Memorial Day weekend, they are looking up in the standings at the Royals, with both teams trailing first-place Cleveland.
Kansas City Royals (34-20) vs. Minnesota Twins (28-24) at Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Royals: 4.87 runs scored/game (6th in MLB), 3.41 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Twins: 4.42 runs scored/game (13th), 4.35 runs allowed/game (16th)
The Twins took two of three from the Royals in Kansas City in the first series of the season, but lost promising infielder Royce Lewis. The team has been streaky, going on a 12-game win streak in late April, but they snapped a seven-game losing streak on Tuesday. They’ve won four of five since then, taking a home series against the defending champion Rangers this week.
Twins hitters have the eighth-lowest walk rate and the eighth-lowest batting average at .231. Carlos Correa has bounced back from a disappointing 2023 season, although he missed some time in April with a rib cage injury. Ryan Jeffers is tied for third among all catchers in home runs, and leads all qualified catchers in slugging percentage. Edouard Julien is in an awful slump, hitting .143/.250/.157 over his last 25 games.
The Twins hit more home runs at home, but their team batting average is nearly 20 points lower at Target Field. Their leadoff hitters are batting .179/.271/.314, the second-worst OPS from that spot in the order in baseball.
Joe Ryan tossed seven shutout innings in a win over the Nationals his last time out. In seven career starts against the Royals he is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA. He will throw strikes, with the fifth-lowest walk rate and he throws a first-pitch strike 70 percent of the time, the fifth-highest rate in baseball.
Simeon Woods Richardson is a former top 100 prospect that was acquired in the José Berríos trade. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, but hasn’t walked many hitters either. He has lasted past five innings in only three of his seven starts. The 23-year-old throws a 93 mph four-seamer, a changeup, a curveball, and a slider opponents are hitting just .178 against.
Bailey Ober struck out ten in six shutout innings with just one walk back on May 12 against Toronto, but has given up seven runs in nine innings in his two starts since. He has the highest fly-ball rate in baseball, but the seventh-highest soft-hit rate. He features the fifth-best cutter in baseball, and opponents are hitting just .151 against his change up with a 34.7 percent whiff rate.
Chris Paddack was hurt most of the last two seasons but has bounced back to become one of the best strike-throwers in baseball. He has allowed just four runs and seven hits with no walks in his last two starts. Opponents are hitting .293/.322/.445 against him overall, and he has the seventh-highest home run rate in baseball. His fastball velocity is down since his second Tommy John surgery in 2022, but he is relying more on his changeup, slider, and curveball.
The Twins bullpen has been hit with injuries, with Brock Stewart, Justin Topa, and Josh Winder all out. Closer Jhoan Duran can still hit triple digits on the radar gun, but his strikeout rate is down significantly from last year. He has converted all six save opportunities but has given up five runs in his last five outings. Griffin Jax has one of the best strikeout rates among relievers and averages 96 mph with his fastball. Former Royals reliever Josh Staumont has been scoreless in his first six outings, but his fastball velocity is down to 94.5 mph. Overall Twins relievers have a 3.81 ERA with the third-best strikeout rate, but they are tied for the most inherited runners allowed to score.
The Twins have been up-and-down this year, but they have a talented team that has been in several pennant races before with good pitchers who can throw strikes. The Royals ended their winning streak in Florida, but they can start a new one this week in Minnesota.