Ha, I Was Right! (Oops, I Was Also Wrong)
On this Memorial Day, first let us take a moment to honor the men in our country who made the ultimate sacrifice, making an out so that a runner could advance from 1B to 2B. With the season just past the 1/3 mark, some elements of the A’s 2024 roster — at least the small portion of it that is not currently on the IL — are coming into focus.
It’s always both fun and scary to think back to March musings and compare notes. Was I right about who the A’s should or shouldn’t employ, about who should or shouldn’t be afforded an extended opportunity to play? The answer is usually an emphatic “Nes!” and 2024 is no exception...
Max Schuemann
It’s easy to get down on Schuemann after this weekend’s errorpalooza in which 5 of the Astros’ 6 runs were made possible by 3 errors (on 2 plays). But the utility INF/OF is not playing his best position, just the one where is a desperate need right now.
For 2 years I bemoaned the lack of opportunity for Schuemann to strut his wares in Oakland, as he put up .400+ OBPs at AA and AAA but languished past his 26th birthday with not even a big league at bat to show for it.
My call for moar Schuemann (aka any Schuemann) has been vindicated by the not-SS-playing-SS’s increasingly impressive work at the plate following a slow start, and more specifically the quality of his plate appearances throughout.
Overall, Schuemann now stands at .255/.336/.394, good for a 116 wRC+, trending upwards with a .300/.380/.443 May slash line. Schuemann’s BB rate is strong at 9.3% and his K rate solid at 21.5%. Even the knock on him, not enough power, has been mitigated by 3 HR and 4 2B in 107 PAs.
Defensively, we have seen some nice plays at SS from Schuemann but overall the position has been problematic with 5 errors leading to a -5 DRS rating. But put at one of his better positions (probably 2B or 3B) we might be singing even more of Max’s praises.
If nothing else, Schuemann has definitely proven to be more than “work a real look” which is all I have been screaming at the clouds for him to get. God I’m smart.
Abraham Toro
God I’m dumb. When the A’s signed Toro to a free agent contract all I could think of was “Aledmys Diaz II”? Another guy who came from the Astros with a solid track record of mediocrity, whose carrying tool is his bat not his glove except that he couldn’t really hit either.
But apparently behind the scenes Toro was widely regarded by GMs as a prime “breakout candidate” and after 1/3 of a season he is looking like a free agent bargain at $1.275M. His overall stats (.278/.324/.423) may not dazzle but it has come with a lot of hard contact and much contact in general (just a 17.9% K rate), refreshing on an A’s team that strikes out more than once/inning on average.
Toro has also had a penchant for the timely hit, often in the middle of Oakland’s biggest comeback rallies, and kind of out of nowhere has entrenched himself at the top of the order as an unlikely but worthy lead off hitter.
Toro’s glove is pedestrian at any position, but he is competent in multiple spots. He looks more comfortable 2B than at 3B where his reflexes are too often tested, but metrics actually prefer him at 3B both in 2024 and on a career basis.
We will see what a full season of data looks like but if May is any indicator, Toro is also trending upwards with an impressive .302/.339/.443 (128 wRC+) line that is worth saluting on this Memorial Day.
Lucas Erceg
Perhaps my favorite pre-season call, I am proud to have watched Erceg compile a 4.75 ERA in 2023, with 36 BB in 55 IP, and to boldly predict that sometime in 2024 he would be the A’s set up man and a good one.
I just love the stuff, with the fastball at 98-99 MPH, a 91 MPH changeup with wicked movement as well as deception, and a developing slider that keeps hitters honest. And as a converted infielder I felt it was expected that Erceg might take a year to acclimate to a big league mound and put it all together.
What I did not know was that Erceg would be handed that role pretty much straight out of spring training. And save for one changeup to Corey Seager Erceg has been brilliant: 22 IP, 14 hits, 8 BB and 27 K.
Erceg has thrived in the 8th but has also slotted in seamlessly as needed for the 9th where he has saved 2 games on days Mason Miller was not available. He has also been able to go more than 1 inning, once getting 4 outs and twice tossing 2 scoreless innings for the cause.
The two-headed monster of Miller-Erceg has been one of the most dynamic reliever tandems in the league. Many knew of how good Miller would be, but don’t sleep on “backwards name guy” because he’s darn good too.
JD Davis
OK, you can’t win ‘em all. I thought the late signing of Davis, with a chip on his shoulder from being gypped by the Giants out of his arbitration contract, was going to be a big pick-me-up for an A’s team lacking a 3Bman.
Davis has never been any sort of a star, but he had “solid 2 WAR complementary piece” written all over him with his average 3B defense, good eye, and raw power, He profiles as a TTO hitter capable of providing a solid OBP and 20+ HR power while stabilizing the position at 3B.
Sadly, Davis has just not really worked out. Far from solidifying 3B he has rarely seen time there of late and is now more of a 1B-DH-pinch hitter thanks to his .220/.261/.367 showing — and that’s only thanks to a slight resurgence this past week that the A’s can always hope is a trend in the right direction.
Davis’ line drive rate is a full 10% down from league average (14.8% vs. 24.8% for his career) and even farther south of his own career norm (25.1%). And he is getting beat on fastballs, with a .209/.302/.278 line and 41.3% whiff rate on 4-seam fastballs.
Not everyone ages the same way, and at 31 Davis should be far from falling off a cliff but some warning signs are there that his 20s might be the only good years in his career. Or maybe he’s due for a resurgence in June. Let’s hope so, but so far he hasn’t been the 2 WAR player I thought the A’s were adding. In fact according to Fangraphs, currently he sits at a far more modest ... -0.3.
So there are 2 “told ya so’s” and 2 “oopsies’s” from El Blogfathero. I still plan to be right on Lawrence Butler, who I predict will return with a vengeance someday soon and will carve out a career as a rock solid player. And I hope to prepare my mea culpa for doubting Tyler Soderstrom when everyone in the A’s system says, “Don’t worry, he’ll hit.” I worry, I worry — but I also have hope.
Your thoughts on these 4 players or any others you were right or wrong about yourself? Also, don’t forget to turn that burger on the BBQ grill; I predicted you would burn it and that was one of the easier guesses in the 2024 season.