Hot and getting hotter
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- Memorial Day weekend gave us a first feel of what the summer season will likely be like. Afternoon high temperatures soared to the mid to upper 90s during a time when the average temperature is in the upper 80s.
Meteorological summer begins on Saturday, June 1 when the average high temperature is 91°. Astronomical summer begins on Thursday, June 20 when the average high temperature is 94°. Central Texas has already had that summer feel here in late May.
You might have already heard that we are transitioning back to a La Niña from what was, on the whole, a dud of an El Niño. When our area's weather is dictated by the La Niña it means that we transition back to warmer and drier weather.
La Niña summers in 2011 and 2022 turned out to be two of the hottest summers in the state. Locals remember the summer of 2011 as the one where Austin's high temperature peaked at 100° and higher an astounding 90 times. Last year's triple-digit days topped out at 80°.
Our partners at Climate Central took a look at the rapidly rising number of days when the highs soar to above-normal readings. They are projecting there to be a 61% chance that the summer of 2024 will beat the summer of 2023 as the warmest year on record. Why? Some of it has to do with continued carbon pollution trapping more heat in the Earth's atmosphere resulting in summer temperatures arriving earlier and being hotter.
The map below shows that the part of the country where the heat has really been relentless stretches from the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) through most of the west of the Rockies, into Texas. It's even worse from the Edwards Plateau (west of the Hill Country) into far west Texas up into New Mexico where the greatest increase has resulted in higher heat thresholds.
Bringing this home, it was determined that from data collected from 1970 to 2023, Austin had 49 summer days of above-normal temperatures, ranking it in the top 13 joining, among others, Houston, McAllen, El Paso, Bryan, and Odessa where there were between 45 and 67 more summer days above normal.
Breaking it down further, data shows that when highs and lows are combined, there has been an average increase of 4.7°, resulting in days being warmer, or in our case, hotter than normal. We have felt every bit of it.
This doesn't just apply to the high temperatures but it also is affecting morning low temperatures. The average daily minimum temperatures are up by nearly 3°.
We share these numbers with you because extreme heat affects everyone in some way. This is especially true of expectant mothers, adults 65 and older, children, those who live with debilitating illnesses, outdoor workers, and athletes.
As Mother Earth continues to warm we can likely expect these numbers to increase year after year. This transition back to La Niña will only make it warmer and muggier in the mornings and hotter in the afternoons, leading to continued higher-than-average numbers of triple-digit days.
Get ready, friends. The heat is on.