Gold price rebounds ahead of US inflation data

Gold prices rebounded on Monday after hitting a two-week low in the previous session as investors assessed diminishing bets of US interest rate cuts ahead of a key inflation report, due later in the week.

Spot gold was up nearly 1.0% to $2,356.37 per ounce as of 11:25 a.m. ET, having touched its lowest since May 9 at $2,325.19 on Friday. Meanwhile, gold futures in New York recovered 0.9% at $2,355.90 per ounce.

After setting a record high of $2,449.89 last week, bullion has shed more than $100 since, as the market adjusts to signals from the Federal Reserve and new economic data.

“Gold has suffered from more hawkish perceived comments from Fed officials and better-than-expected US economic data, with market participants again shifting back the timing of the first Fed rate cut,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Federal Reserve officials indicated that it would likely take longer than previously anticipated for inflation to fall to 2%, the minutes of its latest policy meeting showed last week.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday it’s possible that a key underlying interest rate that influences the potency of monetary policy may rise in the future after years of declines, but it’s too soon to say if that will happen.

While gold is often considered a safeguard against inflation, higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

Investors are now waiting for the April reading on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the US central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, which is due on Friday.

Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 62% chance that the Fed will cut rates in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool, opens new tab, compared to about a 63% chance on Friday.

“We expect gold prices to stay volatile, and price setbacks to be shallow, targeting gold prices to test new record highs later this year,” UBS’ Staunovo said in a note.

(With files from Reuters)