Tracking the Tropics: Why is the anticipated busy season so quiet right now?
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) -- With the start of hurricane season comes the start of Tracking the Tropics' sixth season.
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All long-term forecasts agree, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be busier than average.
Next week, our Tracking the Tropics team will delve into the factors behind these high predictions, like the switch from El Niño to La Niña, and the unprecedented sea surface temperatures this early in the Atlantic.
This week, we are laser focused on why this season, which is expected to be so incredibly busy, isn't even going yet.
Over the past few years, we have often seen pre-season storms form prior to the official kickoff of hurricane season, which is June 1. But this year, we have made it to the first week of June without any systems to monitor at all.
One of the reasons our season is off to such a quiet start is the same system that has kept Tampa Bay so dry and delayed the start of our rainy season.
There is a large area of high pressure over central Mexico right now - so large that it stretches from coast to coast across Mexico. Some meteorologists refer to a high pressure of this size and influence as a heat dome.
As the name implies, it often brings unprecedented temperatures.
High pressure, or heat domes, also bring quiet, dry weather - part of the reason it also brings hotter temperatures. Also of note is that air rotates clockwise around a high pressure system.
In this case, the position of the heat dome is close enough to the Gulf of Mexico to keep the weather mostly hot and dry there. The air rotating clockwise around the heat dome makes for winds (generally light) moving southward across the Gulf.
This general area is also one of the typical zones we see development of pre-season and early season storms.
We most likely will not see much development until the heat dome begins to erode. Long-term forecast models - which can be completely unreliable this far out and are best used to give you an idea of when we may see larger weather patterns changing, not for pinpointing where and when a storm will be in two weeks - show the heat dome eroding and the potential for initial development this season in around two weeks.
Quiet beginnings to hurricane seasons have zero correlation with how active the season is, or how impactful the storms are during the season.
Here are the names we will use for the 2024 hurricane season: