Here we go! Let’s All Do the Speculation

Now that the dust has settled, England are doing England things with Southgate, and Diaby and Digne have been barred from the Olympics, so it’s probably time to turn our heads to the transfer rumblings gaining steam. It’s probably not overly dramatic to say this may well be a crucial summer for Villa’s and Emery’s project.

Before I talk about specific players (and you know who they are), I want to get into what I think Villa need most.

Attribute Needs
Quality
Speed
Aggression
Strength
Ball winning

From that you can probably surmise I think we’re a bit lightweight overall, and if we have a player who’s aggressive and creative, like McGinn, we also have a player there that lacks a bit of pace. We need more players with both. When you look at McGinn, Luiz, Tielemans, Bailey and Diaby: There’s quality and speed in Bailey and Diaby, but it’s not very stout as a group overall, and not suited to imposing any kind of sustained high press. It’s the blend that counts.

I guess I’ve left out Kamara, and he’s a tricky one for me. Obviously his absence showed, but I’ve never been 100% convinced. Well, I was first, but. He’s a good player, no doubt. Did a lot of important work, no doubt. But there are better players in that position and I’m not sure he’s a true CL DM. However, he’s probably good enough (given financial constraints). When he returns, that is. There’s a hole to fill in the meantime, and it seemed to me that when he came back from injury before, he was a bit more timid in 50-50s, putting in a tackle, etc. I could be entirely wrong, but that was my overall impression. Tim Iroegbunam didn’t inspire much confidence. Big summer for him. (I guess I should say here that we need to improve the youth pipeline to at least get us one or two decent squad/backup players.)

So, the other absentees. We have no idea how Buendia, Mings, and Kamara are going to be when they return. Ty obviously got past a serious knee injury when he joined us. But he’s older now, and I don’t know how the two injuries compare. You’d like to think “Hey, that’s almost like three new signings,” but Mings, if 100%, would simply be replacing Carlos or Lenglet, but as an upgrade. Buendia, yeah, new signing. Kamara? Fingers crossed. Rogers? Probably fine, and probably an able (cheaper) replacement for Jacob Ramsey, who may well be off. Oh, and Moreno.

All of that seems pretty straightforward. We need some better athletes overall. Quality? Simple enough, in theory: More one-touch players.

Position Needs
There’s depth, of course, needed almost everywhere. That’s a given. And more one-touch players. Have I mentioned that? We have to be able to play out against high pressure (Chelsea, anyone?), and that’s how you do it. Beyond depth, the ratio of those players at the clubs above us is one of the telling differences. We’re generally playing the same kinds of tactics as the top clubs, but we don’t move it as quickly and assuredly.

Strikers
Duran? Lots of potential, keep if possible, but if someone’s offering biggish money, he can probably go. Ollie, fabulous. Another proven finisher with top-flight experience? Yes. Can we afford it? Dunno. A Duran sale might get us more of a finished product. Sometimes you have to make that tradeoff if you want to hold position.

Midfield
I’m not against keeping any of the ones we have. Most of the above discussion centers on midfield, so you can see what I think we lack and what I’d hope we might add in. I think Barkley will fit the mold at a very good price. Weston McKinnie might very well, too. If you add Barkley, not sure how much you end up missing Luiz as it seems he may well be off. You add Ross and McKinnie, and I think you’ve probably made up for him leaving, made a profit, and added a body.

Buendia’s a wild card. I think he’d suit Emery’s system. Seems willing to adapt. No idea what Emery thinks. You know I like him. He’s combative, competitive and a one-touch player with good vision.

Ramsey? We all see the flashes, and he’s been very unfortunate with injuries. He starts moving up a level, then gets interrupted. The season was almost non-existent for him after that summer injury. Again, if decent money is offered, I think we’ll sell. Rogers has roughly the same attributes, and a home-grown player is pure profit.

Various rumors have us linked to all sorts of players across the continent with all sorts of attributes. So we just wait to see. The Luiz deal will be the first domino in any substantial turnover, I’d think. If we can add another silky operator with pace who can run all day, I’m for it. Not sure what money Tielemans is on, but some of the names we’re linked with…We can probably get a better athlete with the same quality. Since he was a free, that’s profit, too.

I don’t like playing against him, but depending on the fee, Gallagher could be just the sort of aggressive, all-action pain in the ass we need.

Fullbacks
Probably our biggest weakness. I don’t think Cash is a particularly good defender. Digne and Moreno are just okay defenders, but they’ve been tasked more with providing wide service. Both are getting older, and Moreno’s coming off a significant injury. I think we could upgrade on any of the three. I’d really like someone who just shuts things down, especially given how we set up. Would be immense to essentially take one side of the pitch away from opponents as a true attacking threat. We saw a couple of players do that to us in the Conference League.

Center Backs
Obviously Konsa’s class and I think we were at our best with him and Mings. Both read the game well, have good pace, are strong enough. Mings, we miss the aerial dominance (see set piece goals conceded, etc). Lenglet, gone. Carlos? Big wages and probably not worth them. Strong, but not tall enough and not as fast as Mings or Konsa.

Torres? He’s class, yes. But he’s not terribly strong, doesn’t seem to have a great vertical leap on him, and isn’t as fast as he could be. That said, he came it and generally was very good. Cool under pressure, good bringing it out, better distribution than Mings. Reads the game well. Don’t know how we set up with Mings and him in the squad, as I’m not convinced by Konsa at RB. He does pretty well, but it’s asking an awful lot of him.

So, depending on Mings’ recovery, we might just want one or two decent backups. Would probably help if we could offload Carlos and spend the money more wisely. I could also see Mings being sold. But I don’t know what market there’ll be for him.

Overall
Seems like there are a number of players linked who have lots of experience and production in top-flight setups. And a lot of them seem to have fairly low release clauses. If Monchi’s on his game, I get the impression that pending the proposed relaxation to financial restrictions and the sale of one or two players like Luiz and Ramsey, we could probably do a lot of good business that makes us better suited to PL and CL challenges. Don’t know how the payments work (I should go read), but would be an accomplishment just to get to the knockout stages of the CL.

It’s also going to be hard to finish fourth again. Greater depth and a stronger midfield would give us a better shot. We’re likely going to have to at least split games against Chelsea, United, Spurs, Newcastle and West Ham to have any chance (even better, getting four points out of the fixtures), and continue overperforming against City, Arsenal and Liverpool. It will be tight again.

But like I say above, if we can address certain things and get deeper, you never know.

Over to you.