Series Preview: Royals at Guardians
The first three of thirteen meetings begins tonight
The upstart Royals meet the resurgent Guardians tonight, and something’s gotta give.
The Royals arrive in Cleveland at 36-25 with a +74 run differential, four games back in the division, 12th in MLB with a 101 team wRC+, fifth with 4.2 baserunning runs above average, fifth with 4.5 Defensive WAR, second in starting pitching FIP at 3.42, and 24th in reliever FIP at 4.18.
The Guardians are 39-20 with a +78 run differential, first place in the AL Central, ninth in MLB with a 105 team wRC+, 11th with 0.7 baserunning runs above average, 11th with 0.7 Defensive WAR, 27th in starting pitching FIP at 4.47, and first in reliever FIP at 2.67.
Matchups:
Game One: Seth Lugo, RHP (3.21 FIP) vs. Triston McKenzie, RHP (5.58 FIP), Tuesday, 6:40PM EST
Analysis: McKenzie has struggled this season, there is no way around acknowledging that. Until an unfortunate start at Coors Field, however, he had a 2.37 ERA in May. Don’t ask me about his expected numbers and underlying metrics in that time, however. It will be key for McKenzie to avoid walks and dodge the longball from the Royals’ hitters and give the Guardians a chance to hang in the game against Lugo and hopefully get into the Royals bullpen early. The Guardians will try to keep the Royals top hitters in check this series, a list of bats featuring the ageless Salvador Perez at 149 wRC+, phenom Bobby Witt Jr at 148 wRC+, Michael Massey at 125 wRC+, Garrett Hampson at 112 wRC+, Freddy Fermin at 107 wRC+ and Vinnie Pasquantino at 107 wRC+.
Game Two: Brady Singer, RHP (3.49 FIP) vs. (probably) Logan Allen, LHP (5.23 FIP) Wednesday, 6:40PM EST
Analysis: Again, Allen has struggled in 2024 but prior to an unfortunate outing in Coors, he too had a 4.21 ERA in May, which is fine for a solid fourth starter, as he appears to be trending toward being. The Royals have a 109 wRC+ vs. LHP as a team. Meanwhile, Singer will try his hand at controlling the Guardians’ best hitters who are David Fry at 217 wRC+, Steven Kwan at 165 wRC+, Jose Ramirez at 144 wRC+, Josh Naylor at 122 wRC+, and Andres Gimenez at 110 wRC+.
Game Three: (probably) Daniel Lynch, LHP (4.72 FIP) vs. (probably) Tanner Bibee, RHP (3.58 FIP), Thursday, 1:10PM EST
Analysis: The Guardians, at this point, are relying on Bibee to be the team’s ace, to pitch deep into games giving the team a chance to win and the bullpen a chance to catch their breath. This will be his chance to do so against the team’s closest competition (so far) in the Central as they likely start a rookie pitcher (after Michael Wacha broke a bone in his foot). The Guardians somehow have an 119 wRC+ against lefties this year (David Fry?), so hopefully that continues this series.
I hope this will be the series that the Naylor brothers begin to find things. After a torrid start to the season, Josh has been in an extended slump and Bo has yet to find his stride at all this year. I am confident in both players, but the arrival of a spunky, young division rival in town would be a great time for the Naylors to exert their will and show the Royals that the Central division runs through Cleveland.