On the Outs: Mariners at Athletics Series Preview
The Mariners head to Oakland to start this week.
After that up-and-down East Coast road trip, there’s nothing quite like beating up on two division rivals to reset the good vibes. And because the rest of the AL West is doing their best AL Central impression this year, the Mariners actually have the easiest remaining strength of schedule thanks to the 20 games against the A’s and Angels that are left on the docket. They’ll knock three of those games out this week as they look to carry their momentum forward.
Since the Mariners and A’s played each other in early May, Oakland has tumbled down the standings, winning just five of their last 19 games. The pluck they showed during the first month of the season to push their record to .500 on May 4 has all but disappeared. Their offense is still potent — they’ve posted a 112 wRC+ over the last 30 days, 4th in baseball — but their pitching staff has been atrocious as they’ve suffered a rash of injuries to a number of key contributors. And despite the good looking peripherals on the hitting side of things, they’ve only scored 3.2 runs per game thanks to their all-or-nothing approach at the plate.
Last year, Brent Rooker was the A’s token All-Star because someone had to represent them in Seattle. This year, he might earn his way onto the team all on his own. He’s currently crushing everything he sees, running a phenomenal .280/.367/.554 slash line while also striking out a third of the time. All those strikeouts haven’t hurt him yet; he’s doing so much damage when he does make contact that his expected wOBA is just five points below his actual wOBA. Old friend Abraham Toro is also filling up the stat box atop Oakland’s lineup, showing off the bat-to-ball skills that made him a target of Jerry Dipoto but with a normalized BABIP this year.
Probable Pitchers
Mitch Spence was selected from the Yankees in the rule-5 draft this offseason and spent the first month of his major league career pitching out of the bullpen. Injuries have forced him into the starting rotation where he’s enjoyed a bit of success. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff but generates a ton of contact on the ground thanks to natural sink on all of his pitches in his repertoire. His sweeping slider is his best pitch and he also throws an occasional 12-to-6 curveball to keep left-handed batters at bay. Over his first three big league starts, he’s allowed just three runs in 13 innings while running a pretty good 2.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Joey Estes made his season debut against the Mariners back in early May and held them to just a single run in five innings of work. A clunker of a start against the Astros has marred what has otherwise been a pretty good beginning to his big league career. Outside of that ugly outing in Houston, he’s allowed six runs in 17 innings in his other three starts with a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fastball is his best pitch with a ton of life up in the zone and pretty good command of it. His secondary offerings are average or worse, though his changeup has shown a bit of promise this year.
JP Sears improved nearly all of his peripherals last year except the one weakness he’s always struggled with: his home run rate. He allowed 34 dingers in 2023 and that’s the biggest reason why his FIP outpaced his ERA and xFIP by more than half a run. In an effort to curtail those long ball woes, he’s shuffled his pitch mix this year to feature his sweeper as his primary pitch while also increasing the usage of his sinker. His flat four-seam fastball will always generate an above average amount of whiffs thanks to its shape, but batters simply crush it when they make contact with it. So far, the adjustments have paid off; his ERA and FIP are much lower than they were last year and he’s only allowed eight home runs so far.
The Big Picture:
I’ve added the AL division leaders and Wild Card standings to this section to keep tabs on where the Mariners sit in the playoff picture. The M’s currently own the largest division lead in the AL, though they’d only be the third seed and be forced to play a Wild Card round series if the playoffs started today. Rooting for some more AL Central shenanigans is definitely in Seattle’s best interest.
After winning their weekend series in Miami, the Rangers lost the opening game of a three-game set against the Tigers yesterday. The Astros won their first game of a series against the Cardinals yesterday, bouncing back after an ugly week last week. The Guardians begin a huge three-game series against the Royals today in a huge AL Central showdown.