CNN data guru ‘speechless’ after polling finds Trump headed for ‘historic performance’ with Black voters
CNN data reporter Harry Enten stunned Monday after polling found that former President Trump is expected to garner significant support from Black voters.
An aggregate of network polls found dwindling interest in President Biden among Black voters, down to 70% in 2024 from 86% in 2020. Trump, meanwhile, has cut into Biden’s coalition, tripling his support from Black voters over the last four years, from 7% in 2020 to 21% in 2024.
"I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal and I don’t see it yet in the polling," Enten said. "If anything, right now we’re careening towards historic performance for a Republican presidential candidate, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades."
Enten noted that Biden has seen a slight decline among Black voters over 50. However, support for the current president from Black voters under the age of 50 has cratered, plummeting from 80 points in 2020 to just 37 points in 2024.
"I’ve just never seen anything like this. I’m like speechless," Enten said.
In late May, Enten said Trump’s gains with Black voters represent a "huge alarm" for Biden’s re-election campaign. He said that not accounting for other voting shifts from 2020, the increase in Black support would put Trump over the top in 2024 with 291 Electoral College votes.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll published Sunday found that support for Biden among Black voters has dropped roughly 20 percentage points since the last election in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Michigan, the poll found that Trump has 15% of Black voters, compared to Biden, who has 54% of the support from Black voters.
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Trump received just 9% of the Black vote in Michigan in the 2020 election.
According to the poll, the former president gets 11% of the Black vote in Pennsylvania, which is up three points compared to 2020. A majority, 56%, of Black voters still prefer Biden in the state.
The latest Fox News poll shows Biden receiving 72% support among Black voters. That’s up from 66% in February but still a drop from his 79% before the 2020 election. Among all voters, Trump holds a narrow lead over Biden.
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Fox News’ Hanna Panreck and Gabriel Hays contributed to this report.