Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on road traffic injuries in Iran: An interrupted time-series analysis

by Pirhossein Kolivand, Peyman Saberian, Jalal Arabloo, Masoud Behzadifar, Fereshteh Karimi, Soheila Rajaie, Morteza Moradipour, Arash Parvari, Samad Azari

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the number of road accidents and deaths caused by them. The present study aimed to identify the effect of this epidemic on traffic accidents and their casualties in Iran.

In this study, Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) was used in a semi-experimental design to measure the impact of the restrictive policies of COVID-19 on road accidents. Data were collected retrospectively from the Iran Red Crescent Society data set for 31 provinces from March 2017 to February 2022. The information related to the number of road accidents, injuries, deaths, and deaths in the hospital was collected. The Newey‐West method is used for estimation. Statistical analyses were carried out using R software version 3.6.1.

Since February 2020 in Iran, the reduction in the number of road accidents and the number of injuries and deaths in these accidents was significant at 5% but the reduction of deaths in the scene and hospital was significant at 10%. In general, for all variables, the reduction trend was established only in the first months, and then it had an upward trend.

In the early months of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran, the number of road accidents and their casualties decreased. Policies restricting traffic, quarantine, and fines for violators can be reasons for changing people’s behavior and travel patterns and also lead to a reduction in traffic accidents and fatalities. Such studies can explain the importance of the policies in changing behavioural patterns and can be used as a guide in future policies.