Emmys update: Truncated ballots yield fewer nomination slots
Last Thursday marked the beginning of the annual 11-day period during which members of the TV academy cast their ballots for the Primetime Emmy nominations. Since there are fewer candidates in practically every category compared to last year, there are also fewer nomination slots up for grabs. Indeed, performers eligible for half of the 16 main acting awards must now fight harder to officially compete for them.
Those who were immediately cut from Gold Derby’s predicted acting lineups once the ballots dropped were supporting players Allison Janney (“Palm Royale”), Bowen Yang (“Saturday Night Live”), Holland Taylor (“The Morning Show”), and Mark Duplass (“The Morning Show”), non-continuing program leads Naomi Watts (“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”) and Tony Shalhoub (“Mr. Monk’s Last Case”), and drama series guests Sharon Horgan (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”) and Jonathan Pryce (“Slow Horses”). Yang had broken into the comedy featured male lineup just a few hours earlier, replacing Carl Clemons-Hopkins (“Hacks”).
Janney’s sudden exit from our comedy supporting actress list coincided with the emergence of a new frontrunner in the same category. Weeks after gleaning the support of our editors and Top 24 Users, Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) is now generally favored to defeat previous race leader Meryl Streep (“Only Murders in the Building”).
Another major development occurred in the Best TV Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actress race this week as Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”) snatched the top spot from Jennifer Jason Leigh (“Fargo”). This is the third time these two have traded places, following Reis’s respective rise and fall on May 9 and 12. The way things are going, she may soon find that her actual toughest challenger is Jessica Gunning (“Baby Reindeer”), who is already backed to win by our editors and All-Star 24 Users.
Duplass’s rapid drop from eighth to 10th place was the first of several drama supporting actor shifts triggered by the release of the ballots. After initially holding onto his spot at the new bottom of our lineup, Jack Lowden (“Slow Horses”) was soon bumped in favor of Ke Huy Quan (“Loki”), who was, in turn, quickly replaced by Takehiro Hira (“Shōgun”).
Although the drama lead categories have each retained their six nomination slots, seemingly safe contender Colin Farrell (“Sugar”) was still displaced this week by Walton Goggins (“Fallout”), who had been a predicted nominee until “Shōgun” stars Hiroyuki Sanada and Cosmo Jarvis forced him into eighth place when they migrated from the movie/limited category four weeks ago.
Rounding out our list of newly predicted winners are “Shōgun” and “Baby Reindeer,” which respectively pulled ahead of former drama and limited series leaders “The Crown” and “Fargo” on Sunday. Also worth mentioning is the fact that Australian import “Colin from Accounts” rose above its 100/1 Best Comedy Series odds last Friday – just 10 days after taking the top comedy prize at the inaugural Gotham TV Awards.
Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.
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