Fire on the River: Mariners at Guardians Series Preview
The Mariners head to Cleveland for three-game series with some potential playoff implications.
The Mariners took a commanding lead in the AL West last weekend and now have the best odds to win a division title of any team in the AL at 80.4% — yes, better odds than the Yankees or Guardians who both are dealing with intra-divisional challengers. Seattle doesn’t have to worry too much about that since the Rangers and Astros are now both nine games back. Amazingly enough, the M’s are now 17-5 against their division this year, the best intra-divisional record in baseball. Don’t hang the banner yet, Joe Veyera, there’s still plenty of season left to play.
With the division a secondary concern right now, the Mariners have an opportunity to improve their playoff seeding this week with a series against the Guardians. After their hiccup last year, Cleveland has bounced back to lead the AL Central for essentially the entire season. They still have the youngest roster in baseball, but all those growing pains they suffered through last year have been put behind them. Injuries to Shane Bieber and Gavin Williams have left their starting rotation a little shorthanded but they’ve managed to weather that storm thanks to the best bullpen in baseball by a pretty wide margin.
José Ramírez is still the centerpiece of this lineup and he’s been as productive as ever. His power production has bounced back after seeing a bit of a dip the last two seasons and he’s on pace to blast over 30 home runs for the first time since 2021. This year, he’s gotten a ton of offensive support from Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, and David Fry of all people. Kwan is in the midst of the best season yet, though a .418 BABIP is doing a lot of the heavy lifting for his .398/.456/.545 slash line. Still, he has the lowest strikeout rate in the American League and he’s produced more power than someone like Luis Arraez who is really only a singles hitter. As for Fry, he entered the season as an interesting multi-positional bench piece who could catch and play the field but he’s hit his way into an everyday role across a variety of positions. He’s running an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio, hits for a bit of power, and has been a key contributor to the Guardians offense.
Probable Pitchers
From a previous series preview:
After enjoying a big breakout back in 2022, Triston McKenzie missed nearly the entire season thanks to two major injuries; he hurt his shoulder during spring training, returned to make two starts in June, and then was sidelined until the end of September with an elbow injury. The big key to his breakout was a conscious decision to forego a few strikeouts in favor of reducing his walk rate. His resultant 4.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio was still elite and his ERA dropped under three. His fastball has tons of carry, making it hard to square up, but the pitch’s whiff rate lags behind what we’d expect from a heater with its characteristics. He also possesses two excellent breaking balls that do a lot of the heavy lifting in his pitch mix once he gets ahead.
McKenzie has struggled this year thanks to a pretty dramatic dip in his fastball velocity. He’s pitching with a partially torn elbow ligament, opting against surgery during the offseason. In his first start of the season against the M’s, he allowed five runs in just 3.1 innings, striking out a pair.
With Bieber sidelined for the year, Tanner Bibee has stepped into the role of staff ace. He had a very successful debut last year and has followed that up with improvements across a number of key metrics; his strikeout rate is up 3.5 points, his walk rate is down a point, and he’s allowing fewer hard hit batted balls. With a fly ball oriented batted ball profile, he’ll be susceptible to the long ball at times which is why his ERA is about half a run higher than his FIP right now. He’s got a pair of excellent secondary weapons in his slider and changeup and a good enough fastball — exactly the mold of nearly every successful Cleveland starter they’ve churned out over the years.
From a previous series preview:
Logan Allen was one of the trio of young rookie pitchers who made their debut for Cleveland last year, though he’s probably the one with the lowest ceiling. Still, as a lefty with a plus changeup, he should be able to carve out a nice major league career. He doesn’t really throw hard, mostly relying on decent command of his heater along with his secondary pitches to earn outs. Besides his fantastic split change, he also possesses a decent sweeper and a poor cutter. His 2.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn’t all that outstanding but he still managed to post an ERA under four in his first campaign in the big leagues.
Allen held the Mariners scoreless back in April, throwing 6.2 innings while allowing seven baserunners and striking out six.
The Big Picture:
The Mariners gained an extra half game on the Rangers yesterday thanks to the Mets; New York destroyed Texas 14-2 in the first game of that series. The Astros won their weekend series against the Tigers and head to Chicago for an easy breezy series against the White Sox this week. Elsewhere in the American League, the two best teams in the AL East matchup for a huge series in New York this week while the Red Sox and Blue Jays play each other to try and stay relevant at the back of the Wild Card race.