Tony Talk: Our extremely early 2025 Tony Awards predictions for ‘Gypsy,’ ‘Sunset Boulevard’ and more

Welcome to Tony Talk, a column in which Gold Derby contributing theater editors Sam Eckmann and David Buchanan offer Tony Awards analysis. Even though the 2024 Tony Awards are barely in the rearview mirror, we cannot help but offer our extremely early takes on the state of the 2025 race with over two dozen musicals, plays and revivals already announced. 

Sam Eckmann: David, I know we just finished covering the 2024 Tony Awards… but I’m already thinking about next season! Would you care to join me on a far-too-early look at what productions might tickle Tony voters’ fancies for the 2025 ceremony? A whopping 15 new musicals debuted during the 2023-2024 Broadway season (mostly, it seemed, in the final sleepless week of eligibility), but the 2024-2025 season is already threatening to rival those numbers. So far we have confirmed bows for “A Wonderful World,” “Death Becomes Her,” “Maybe Happy Ending,” “Redwood,” “Smash,” “Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends,” “Swept Away,” and “Tammy Faye.” That’s already 8 new tuners, with the distinct possibility that “Boop!” and “Queen of Versailles” will join them in the months ahead. We know this won’t be the final lineup, but what from this early crop of announcements stands out to you? Do you think that list already contains a potential 2025 Best Musical winner?

David Buchanan: Sam, it’s never too early to start talking about the 2025 Tonys! I think we’re right on time, actually, because the new Broadway season already kicked off this month with the opening of Roundabout Theatre Company’s revival of “Home.” As we saw yet again at this year’s ceremony, Tony voters really, really like to award Best Musical to an original piece rather than a jukebox musical, and we most certainly have a handful of shows here that in one way or another fit that jukebox bill, such as “A Wonderful World,” “Swept Away” and “Old Friends.” I’m not ruling those out entirely and think “Swept Away” could really appeal as a moody, intimate show with an entirely unique and emotional story told via the existing songs of The Avett Brothers. We’ve also heard really strong word of mouth and read good reviews for “Death Becomes Her,” and that show has a stacked cast of Broadway talent including leads Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard. So while I’m not ready to declare any of these shows a Best Musical frontrunner – I haven’t seen any of them in their out-of-town incarnations – those are two that I think could pick up Best Musical noms. What do you have your eye on as strong early contenders?

Sam Eckmann: I could probably transcribe the entire script of “Death Becomes Her” here from memory if you asked me, so naturally, I’m beyond excited for a musical adaptation. The story is high camp at its finest and I think it could translate to the stage extremely well. Plus, Hilty and Simard are national treasures. Just imagining Simard’s sure-to-be unhinged line reading of “en garde, bitch!” makes me want to fork over my wallet to this show. So on paper at least, “Death Becomes Her” looks golden. Speaking of camp, I have high hopes for “Smash.” It’s based of course on the short-lived NBC series which has earned a sort of cult status since its cancellation. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman write these gloriously grand musical theater scores that just aren’t being made anymore, so I hope this one can turn into a hit (their splashy “Some Like it Hot” left us far too soon). I suppose the real question is whether they have written enough new songs to qualify for the Best Original Score category. I’ve also heard stellar things about “Boop!” from Chicago, which is indeed based on the classic Betty Boop cartoons. I haven’t heard any of the score yet, but the design elements look stunning and there is potential there for some creative storytelling. All signs point to it opening this season, and if voters want to veer away from musicals that simply retread the plots of movies/shows/books, then this would be an appealing original tale. The biggest story of the season may lie in the revivals though. Audra McDonald nearly broke Broadway social media when she announced a star turn in a revival of “Gypsy.” It’s going to do battle with a stripped down “Sunset Boulevard” (starring Olivier winner Nicole Scherzinger) for the event of the season. Is that our Musical Revival race?

David Buchanan: I think those are thus far the biggest contenders, absolutely. I wouldn’t say I absolutely needed another “Sunset Boulevard” so soon after the Glenn Close remounting just seven years ago, but this one is so vastly different in its vision from director Jamie Lloyd, whose work I appreciate a lot, and this production just won seven Olivier Awards, so it has great momentum heading into its Broadway run this Fall. I am most excited to see what the great, Lifetime Achievement Award-winning director George C. Wolfe does with “Gypsy,” especially with the phenomenal McDonald as the lead. I would note that only one Broadway production of “Gypsy” has won the Tony for either Best Musical or Best Musical Revival – that was the Tyne Daly production in 1989 – not even the 2008 production that won three acting trophies for Patti LuPone, Boyd Gaines and Laura Benanti. Perhaps it will be time to give it the big prize again, especially for a production that is sure to be reimagined in a way it has never been before? It certainly doesn’t have enough trophies for what is often considered the greatest musical of all time. I think some of the other shows might be stronger in the acting categories than in Best Revival, like the limited run of “Once Upon a Mattress” with Sutton Foster or “The Last Five Years” with Adrienne Warren. We know very little about it yet, but I do want to flag Adam Guettel‘s “Floyd Collins” as a potential contender, too. Let’s see who they cast, but the combination of that legendary composer, director Tina Landau and Lincoln Center Theatre is very enticing, and I know a lot of theatre folks love this show from its cast recording and its earlier lives. Are you ready to make a proclamation about what will win Best Musical Revival? And speaking of Audra and Nicole and Sutton and Adrienne (oh my!), we have to dive into the Best Actress in a Musical category, too.

Sam Eckmann: I cannot wait for “Floyd Collins.” If anything can take the Tony away from the two big commercial “event” revivals, it’s this show. The musical has never been on Broadway before, so a whole crop of new theater fans are about to discover this score. I know I previously said I had trouble connecting with Guettel’s music for “Days of Wine and Roses,” but his work on “Floyd Collins” is for me, one of the most beautiful musical theater compositions ever. The race will also feature a new staging of “The Pirates of Penzance” from Roundabout Theatre Company, starring David Hyde Pierce and Ramin Karimloo. There’s also the return of “Elf” if voters want to get into the holiday spirit. But to your last point, Lead Actress in a Musical is already an all-out war. And we don’t even have a full lineup of shows yet. We have the previously mentioned Foster, McDonald, Scherzinger, Hilty, Simard, and Warren all in contention. That’s already more than enough legends to fill the category. But then there’s Olivier winner Katie Brayben in “Tammy Faye” and Helen J. Shen in “Maybe Happy Ending.” Plus Idina Menzel will be making a long-anticipated return to the rialto in “Redwoods.” If “Queen of Versailles” transfers this season, then Menzel could square off against her former “Wicked” co-star Kristin Chenoweth. This still doesn’t cover the unknowns in the race. I have good word that a dynamite Tony nominee is stepping into the Ivy Lynn/Marilyn Monroe character in “Smash,” and she would be a force to be reckoned with. There’s also some rumblings that the London version of “Next to Normal” is considering crossing the pond, which would add Caissie Levy to the mix, who has shockingly never been nominated. I don’t envy the job of nominators next spring. I’m exhausted just looking at this list. How does one choose?

David Buchanan: I haven’t a clue how we could possibly narrow down this list to five nominees, especially because so many of them have already played these roles Off-Broadway or across the pond to magnificent reviews. I suppose it’s safe to say that a shocking snub or two will happen – I still remember when McDonald was shamefully left out for “Shuffle Along” and her unforgettable rendition of “Memories of You” – but we’ll need to see these productions for ourselves to start properly winnowing down the list. I will say that while the nominators often have excellent memories and will give slots to performers from closed shows, we’ve seen time and time and time again that they are reluctant to actually give the award to someone no longer performing come June, e.g. Kelli O’Hara this year and Sharon D Clarke in recent memory. We know “Sunset Boulevard” and “Gypsy” will be on the boards through the Tony ceremony in 2025, but we can’t necessarily say the same about new productions like “Tammy Faye” until we see how well they sell. So perhaps it will ultimately really come down to Scherzinger and McDonald a year from now? The Tony telecast producers even teed up this contest this year with the two of them plus Warren appearing at the ceremony, so they know we’re already obsessed with this showdown of brilliant performers. If I had to make a proclamation right now, I’d back McDonald for taking on one of the absolute best roles in modern musical theatre, but she is sight unseen and anything can happen between now and June 2025. Do you feel similarly? What other acting categories for either musicals or plays do you think will be anywhere near as competitive as this one?