Will first place lead Phillies to bolder trade deadline strategy? Dave Dombrowski weighs in.
Remember what the narrative was surrounding the Phillies heading into this season.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and the front office chose continuity over a shakeup following a disappointing defeat in seven games to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League Championship Series. There was a feeling, especially in the days after the loss, that the Phillies squandered their best chance to win the World Series.
That initial feeling has proven to be untrue. The Phillies, through 73 games, are 25 games over .500. They are eight games up on the Atlanta Braves in the National League East and are virtually a lock to return to the postseason for a third straight season.
The NL is also weaker. The Braves lineup has unsurprisingly taken a step backwards after a historic season in 2023 and their starting pitching depth is thin. The Dodgers, who failed to get out of the Division Series in each of the last two seasons, are putting all of their focus into October, but will be without Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for a significant period of time. The Brewers are the only other NL team over .500.
For a team whose lack of activity frustrated fans, they’re doing pretty well.
“We placed the emphasis on continuity because we felt we had a good club,” Dombrowski told Phillies Nation over the weekend. “We felt they can play well together. So I think it helps a great deal in the sense that the players know one another. They know what to expect from one another. They are a very close-knit group. All of that comes together, but the continuity works when you’re winning, too.”
The starting rotation, even after a few rough outings over the last week, has a 2.99 ERA and leads the NL in innings pitched. The starters consistently going deep has made things easier for the bullpen, who have the second-lowest innings total, but have accumulated the second-most fWAR in MLB. Better defense, especially in the infield, has led to better results for the pitching staff.
But the biggest reason why the Phillies are on pace to win over 100 is because multiple key players have taken a step forward. Alec Bohm, after struggling for about a month, is batting .305 with an .840 OPS and could be the first Phillie since Scott Rolen in 2002 to start at third base for the National League in the All-Star Game.
There may not be room for both Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez on the All-Star roster, but there should be. Both have been a revelation. Suárez is a lock with a 10-1 record and a 1.77 ERA. Sánchez’s ascension isn’t getting the same level of national attention, but the numbers are still phenomenal. After throwing seven innings and allowing only one earned run in Monday’s win against San Diego, Sánchez’s season ERA is down to 2.91.
“We thought we had a good club, but we thought we had a chance to have a really good club if they continued to grow,” Dombrowski said. “And they have done that.”
From Edmundo Sosa playing out of his mind with Trea Turner on the injured list to Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman’s dominance out of the pen, the roster is stacked with pleasant surprises.
But does all of this early success lead to a more ambitious strategy at the deadline?
Dombrowski came to Philadelphia in 2021 with the “Dealin’ Dave” reputation, one that sacrifices now for the future. He has operated with more caution during his time in Philadelphia.
His most aggressive deadline in charge was 2022, when he reshaped the roster with deals for Sosa, Brandon Marsh and David Robertson. The best prospect he has dealt so far was catcher Logan O’Hoppe, who was blocked in Philadelphia, but has established himself as a franchise pillar in Anaheim.
But dealing away Ben Brown has stung the most. A former Phillies starting pitching prospect who climbed the prospect rankings after a healthy first half of 2022, Brown was dealt to the Cubs for Robertson, who played a key role in the bullpen for the stretch run, but was only with the team for a few months. Brown, who is currently on the injured list with Chicago, is a major league starter. The Phillies did not want to give up any of their top pitching prospects in Andrew Painter, Mick Abel, Griff McGarry or Brown at that year’s deadline, but they had to make an uncomfortable decision to acquire Robertson.
“We needed a reliever, we felt, in order to win and we gave up a Ben Brown, who we really didn’t want to give up,” Dombrowski said. “We felt we would be able to get some other pitching in the organization, but you’d never like to give up somebody like that. It’s a balancing act, which you need to do.”
It’s too early to tell what big names will be available come the end of July, but their needs are becoming more apparent. Phillies outfielders have combined for a .641 OPS this season. With Johan Rojas down and the team essentially running two platoons in center and left, the Phillies could look for reinforcements in that spot. An injury to a key player could also change the club’s outlook. Losing one of the five starters in the rotation, even with Spencer Turnbull in the bullpen, could force the Phillies to once again play in that market.
It’s a balancing act, as Dombrowski said. Painter and Aidan Miller are the two prospects teams will ask for in trades. Painter and Miller will only go in a trade for a superstar, think Houston’s Kyle Tucker or Chicago’s Luis Robert Jr. Adding a star at any position would increase the team’s odds to win the World Series, but it will come at a price. Painter is viewed as a future ace and will likely contribute in 2025. Miller is one of the most exciting position player prospects the Phillies have had in decades. Both could be cornerstones.
It will be interesting to see how the Phillies handle this dilemma.
“We’re definitely all in to try to win it, within reason,” Dombrowski said.
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