In costly Virginia race for U.S. House, MAGA candidate leads by only 312 votes (0.5%)
The Republican primary contest between incumbent U.S. Rep. Bob Good (VA, 5th District) and state Sen. John McGuire has moved through its second day of inconclusive results, which suggests Virginia Republicans are split on the topic of MAGA. That’s because former President Donald Trump endorsed McGuire over “[o]ne of America’s most conservative congressmen.”
Trump carried the district by 8.5% in the 2020 election.
Why did Trump endorse Good’s opponent? Because he initially endorsed the presidential candidacy of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
In addition, Good voted to unseat Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House of Representatives. McCarthy also endorsed McGuire. From CNN:
In more normal times, it would have been hard to imagine a conservative challenger getting to the right of Good. But in the modern GOP, the true acid test of political viability is total fealty to the presumptive nominee. And this race, which was the most expensive House GOP primary of the 2024 cycle so far, will also serve as the perfect emblem of a chaotic House majority that will be remembered far more for vicious internal fights and members trampling over one another to prove their devotion to Trump than for its legislative record (emphasis added).
As of about 9 pm Pacific on Wednesday, McGuire had a lead of 312 votes, with an unofficial count of 31,389 (50.25%) to 31,077 (49.75%).
Rep. Good, chair of the House Freedom Caucus, was first elected in 2020. He graduated from Liberty University in 1988 (finance) and 2010 (M.B.A.).
Wednesday, Juneteenth, is a holiday in Virginia. Given the probability of a recount, whether mandated or requested, we will not have an official estimate for days.
According to Wikipedia, the area is extremely conservative. It was one of two Virginia districts to support Alabama Gov. George Wallace in his third party run for the presidency. The last time the district (although its boundaries have changed) voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was in 1948 with Harry S. Truman.
The district has fewer people who characterize themselves as white, 69.1%, than the national average, 75.5%. The converse is true for the district’s Black population, 20.7% versus a national rate of 13.6%.
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index reported that 6% more voters cast Republican votes than the national average (designated +6). “This made Virginia’s 5th Congressional District the 179th most Republican nationally.” The United States has 3,143 counties or equivalent local government systems, such as parishes and townships.
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