Nontropical system in Gulf brings rain to Mexico
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was bringing localized flooding to parts of northeastern Mexico Monday, but it was no longer expected to develop as a tropical system, forecasters said.
The disturbance located off the coast near La Pesca, Mexico, is due to move inland.
Its odds of developing dropped to near 0% as of 2 a.m. Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center, down from 40% a day earlier.
The next named storm will be Beryl.
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual May outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
In addition, NOAA has forecast four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, meaning those that are Category 3 or above.
Experts at Colorado State University stated in their 2024 forecast that the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Forecasters say that the record-warm water temperatures that now cover much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic was already as hot as it usually is in mid-August — peak hurricane season.
Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.