A contentious New York primary spotlights Democratic fault lines on Israel

Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a progressive lawmaker who’s been vocal in his calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, is the latest member of the Squad to face an aggressive primary challenge — one that highlights Democrats’ larger divide over the US’s approach to Israel.

Bowman, a two-term lawmaker, is known for backing progressive policies, including Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal. Since Hamas’s brutal October 7 attacks and Israel’s devastating military offensive in Gaza, he’s also become one of the country’s staunchest critics on Capitol Hill. Bowman was among the first to urge a ceasefire, has voted against military aid to Israel, and has described its invasion in Gaza as genocide. In one set of controversial remarks, Bowman also questioned whether Hamas had committed sexual assault during its operation inside Israel, a statement he eventually walked back. 

These positions have become central to his race, which has underscored Democratic differences on the subject. 

Bowman’s stance has made him a top target for pro-Israel advocacy groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), lost him the endorsement of left-leaning Jewish organizations like J Street, and led to some of Bowman’s constituency calling for a primary challenge, for example. It’s also spurred groups including AIPAC to spend a staggering amount to bolster his opponent, making this the most expensive House primary ever.

Bowman’s challenge comes from Westchester County Executive George Latimer, who’s been in state and local politics for decades and framed himself as a moderate alternative. Latimer has seized on their differences on policy toward Israel. Unlike Bowman, Latimer was much slower to endorse a temporary ceasefire, though both he and Bowman say they support a two-state solution.

There are several other factors influencing this race, namely the negative attention that Bowman received for pulling a fire alarm in Congress, and past blog posts he’s written entertaining conspiracy theories about September 11. (Bowman has expressed regret about the posts and said that he does not believe them.) For his part, Latimer has also been accused of outright racism by Bowman and his allies due to statements he’s made and his approach to desegregation policies in Westchester County. On the whole, however, this race is being closely watched because of the war in Gaza.  

“If Bowman wins, it might be interpreted by some as an indicator of where the Democratic Party broadly is headed on support for Israel — which is away from it,” says Daniel DiSalvo, a political scientist at City College of New York. “If Latimer wins, it might be interpreted as the other way, which is that there is still stronger support for Israel inside the Democratic Party.”

That said, the race is just one of dozens of primaries taking place this year and shouldn’t be read as an exact analogy of others still expected to play out given key differences specific to each contest. Instead, it’s one data point of many that offers some indication of where the Democratic party stands, and that points to just how fractured it has become on this issue.

Bowman’s primary, briefly explained

Bowman — a former middle school principal and the first Black Congressman to represent New York’s 16th district — was first elected in 2020, after mounting a successful progressive primary challenge to then-incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel. Spanning parts of the Bronx, Yonkers, and suburbs of Westchester County, the district has a majority Black and Latino voter base, as well as a sizable contingent of Jewish voters.

While in Congress, he’s become a member of the Squad, a group of progressive lawmakers that includes Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN). The group has urged Democrats to pursue more ambitious social policies and has grown in size since 2018. In 2022, Bowman won his House primary by double digits. 

This year’s race, according to limited polling, appears more closely contested. In one independent early June poll of likely voters conducted by Emerson University, Latimer led Bowman by 17 points. Bowman claims his internal polls are far closer, however, and that the methodology of the Emerson one led to a skewed result. Given the dearth of polling in the race, it is difficult to tell how much or little the Emerson results are likely to mirror the final result. 

“We’re looking at a contest that, as of now, is essentially a coin flip,” says Jonathan Collins, a Columbia political science professor. 

The tightly fought race has attracted a lot of outside attention, largely because of how central Israel policy has become, and it’s broken spending records. AIPAC, and its affiliates, which have reportedly vowed to spend $100 million to unseat candidates they view as not supportive enough of the country, have spent upwards of $14 million to back Latimer. In total, outside groups have spent more than $18 million to boost Latimer, and just over $2 million to bolster Bowman — a dynamic that’s led the incumbent to attack the outsize spending in the contest. 

“This race against AIPAC is a really good litmus test as it relates to that, because [they’re] a big-money lobby [that’s] spending more money in this race than has ever been spent in primary history,” Bowman previously told Rolling Stone. “They’re doing that because they do not want a progressive agenda to move forward.”

Bowman’s positions on Israel have grown more progressive over time: In 2021, he previously supported military aid and funding for the Iron Dome, a defense system that the country relies on. Following a trip to the West Bank later that year, however, Bowman told Politico his perspective shifted due to the inequality he witnessed. 

Latimer, who has previously served as a state representative and state senator — in addition to stressing his ideological contrast with Bowman — has touted local tax cuts and infrastructure investments that he’s overseen in his current role as examples of how he’s delivered for the region. 

His campaign has also been plagued by accusations of racism by Bowman, and others, for comments he’s made. Among them, Latimer said that Bowman has an “ethnic benefit,” and that his constituency is “Dearborn, Michigan,” which has a higher Arab American population than many US cities. Bowman has said that Latimer has leveraged the “angry Black man” trope in his campaign attacks, and diminished those supporting him. The Westchester official has been criticized, too, for implementing desegregation policies too slowly in the region. Latimer has denied accusations of racism. 

Democrats are divided on Israel

The Bowman and Latimer primary highlights an enduring Democratic divide as Israel’s offensive in Gaza — and the humanitarian crisis it’s caused — deepens. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 37,000 people have been killed in the region, while over 85,000 have been injured. Palestinians in Gaza are also facing the risks of famine and disease as food, water, and medical supplies all run devastatingly low. And tens of thousands of Gazans have been displaced due to the Israeli military’s airstrikes and lack of safe zones.

President Joe Biden has long taken a much more supportive position in favor of military aid to Israel, prompting an outcry from progressives — and a growing number of Democratic lawmakers — who’ve called for more restrictions or accountability regarding how these funds are dispersed.

Bowman’s race, which is taking place in a solidly blue district, underscores these differences and could indicate where loyal Democratic voters stand on this issue. Additionally, it could reveal how resilient progressive members who’ve entered Congress by unseating longstanding establishment incumbents, continue to be. 

Progressives, including members of the Squad, have been far more aggressive about both pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and curbing US aid to Israel than most of their colleagues. There are some indications that the Democratic base is in alignment with these progressives: For instance, 83 percent of Democrats in a May 2024 Data for Progress poll said they were supportive of a ceasefire, and a Gallup poll also found that most Americans disapprove of Israel’s actions. When asked specifically about the conflict, more Americans support Israel over the militant group, however. 

The outcome of the Bowman-Latimer face-off could provide another signal regarding where Democrats stand on this issue. 

There are some suggestions that Democrats in blue districts want leaders who are to the left of Biden on Israel. Earlier this year, Rep. Summer Lee fended off a primary challenge in Pennsylvania’s 12th district after she was attacked for her positions on Israel. Similarly, in California, state Sen. Dave Min, a candidate who has criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, won a primary in Katie Porter’s former district, despite AIPAC efforts to back his opponent. 

And it could also be a harbinger for races to come. Other progressives are poised to soon see similar challenges, including Rep. Cori Bush, who has seen AIPAC pour money into her race, and Rep. Ilhan Omar, who also faces off against a more centrist challenger later this year.