Tropical waves in Atlantic, Caribbean have chance to develop, hurricane center says

The National Hurricane Center is keeping tabs on two tropical waves with a chance to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said a new system brewing with disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has a growing chance to form as it makes its way toward the Caribbean Sea’s Leeward Islands.

“Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph,” forecasters said,

The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.

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Already in the central Caribbean is another tropical wave chugging along at 25 mph with disorganized shower activity.

“Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development in a couple of days over the western Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.

The next names on the NHC’s Atlantic hurricane season list are Beryl and Chris.

The season’s first named storm of the season was Tropical Storm Alberto, which dropped heavy rain on Mexico and sent heavy storm surge up the Gulf coast to Texas last week.

Ahead of the start of the season on June 1, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an above normal number of storms, expecting between 17 to 25 to spin up to tropical-storm force with eight to 13 expected to become hurricanes, of which four to seven would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

The Northern Hemisphere has only produced 3 named storms (>=39 mph; tropical storms/#hurricanes/#typhoons/#cyclones) so far this year. This is the fewest Northern Hemisphere named storms through June 25th since 1983. pic.twitter.com/I9cWsMVxiw

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 25, 2024

Hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach with Colorado State University noted, however, that storm formation in the Atlantic basin as well as the rest of the Northern Hemisphere including the Indian and Pacific oceans have only produced three named storms through June 25. That’s the least active amount of tropical activity since 1983, he said.

For the Atlantic, Alberto’s formation on June 19 was the latest first named storm since 2014, but still slightly ahead of the long-term average of June 20, Klotzbach said.

The height of hurricane season, though, begins in mid-August and lasts into October. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.