Cori Bush, challenger Wesley Bell locked in dead heat: Survey

Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and her primary challenger, Wesley Bell, are locked in a dead heat in what is expected to be a competitive primary in August, according to a poll released this week. 

The survey, conducted by the polling firm The Mellman Group for the organization Democratic Majority for Israel showed Bell, the St. Louis County prosecuting attorney, ahead of Bush by 1 point — 43 percent to 42 percent — a difference well within the margin of error. This is a notable improvement for Bell from January, when a poll by the firm found Bush leading by 16 points. 

The survey this month also found that 11 percent of respondents were undecided, and 4 percent said they supported another candidate.

But the pollsters found some signs that may benefit Bell as the Show Me State's Aug. 6 primary date approaches. Among the most consistent primary voters — those who voted in three of the most recent primaries — Bell led Bush by 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent. 

He also has an advantage in job approval and overall favorability, according to the poll. The survey found that 61 percent of respondents said they approve of Bell’s job performance, while 27 percent disapprove, compared to 49 percent who approve of Bush’s performance and 45 percent who disapprove.

Both candidates are viewed favorably, but Bell has the slight edge, with 64 percent viewing him favorably compared to the incumbent's 60 percent.

The primary is likely to become the next battleground in a battle between factions of the Democratic Party, especially around the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. One of the other prominent primaries took place Tuesday, when Westchester County Executive George Latimer, a moderate, defeated Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), a "squad" member, in a race largely centered on Israel.

Bowman and Bush have both been sharply critical of Israel’s actions amid the war and have called for a permanent cease-fire in the conflict.

The Democratic Majority for Israel and other pro-Israel groups endorsed both Latimer and Bell in efforts to oust incumbents in favor of challengers who have been less critical and more supportive of Israel. Bell’s website states that he supports Israel’s right to defend itself and pursue those responsible for conducting the Oct. 7 attack, which sparked the war.

The poll was conducted among 400 voters from Missouri’s 1st Congressional District representing the likely Democratic primary electorate in August. It was conducted June 18-22 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.