Box office preview: ‘A Quiet Place: Day One,’ Kevin Costner’s ‘Horizon’ wrap up a hearty June

With “Inside Out 2” dominating the past few weekends, it’s time for another franchise movie to have a chance to swoop in and take #1 … or maybe not. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

Things have generally picked up this month at the box office, and Paramount Pictures’ “A Quiet Place: Day One” will try to keep things rolling with the new installment in a franchise that has grossed $631.5 million over the course of two movies, with one of them released at the height of COVID. Directed by John Krasinski, the first movie opened in 2018 with $50.2 million, leading to a sequel that was delayed a full year due to the pandemic but still did relatively well.

The prequel is co-written and directed by Michael Sarnoski, who made his debut with the 2021 Nicolas Cage thriller “Pig.” It stars Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o (“Black Panther,” “12 Years a Slave”) as a woman dying from cancer who is visiting New York City with her support group (and cat!) when aliens attack. The movie co-stars Joseph Quinn from “Stranger Things,” as well as Alex Wolff and Oscar nominee Djimon Hounsou, whose character previously appeared in “A Quiet Place Part II.”

The success of the two Krasinski-directed movies shows that there’s an interest in the high-concept sci-fi premise of aliens that attack anything or anyone that makes noise, but there does seem to be a bit of “Prequel-phobia” this year, that has hit “The First Omen” and “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” although last year’s “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” and “Wonka” both did quite well.

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This weekend’s top spot is going to be a pretty close and tight race between “A Quiet Place” and “Inside Out 2” in its third weekend, but the chance of there being two movies in theaters making more than $50 million in the same weekend is something that will get movie lovers buzzing again. “A Quiet Place” should win Friday with ease, but expect the Pixar juggernaut to sneak up on it over the weekend to win the weekend with $57 million or more.

Offered as counter-programming is Kevin Costner‘s Western epic, “Horizon: An American Saga Part 1,” Costner’s first movie as a director in 22 years. Famously, Costner made the move from A-list ’80s actor to acclaimed filmmaker when he directed and produced “Dances with Wolves” in 1990, which ended up grossing $184.2 million domestically. It went onto receive 12 Oscar nominations, winning seven, including director for Costner and Best Picture, which should have put Costner at a new level.

After a couple of box office bombs in the late ’90s, Costner returned to the Western genre in 2003, directing “Open Range,” which opened with $14 million on its way to $58.3 million domestic. After that, Costner mainly focused on acting with movies like “Draft Day” and “McFarland USA,” which only performed moderately, while Costner’s 2020 thriller “Let Him Go” was another movie sidelined by the COVID pandemic. More importantly, Costner has been starring on the hit Paramount Network series “Yellowstone” for the past five seasons, which is likely to bring in a larger (presumably still mostly older male) audience.

As you can guess from the title, “Horizon” is an epic saga that will be released in multiple parts, the second chapter planned for a release in August. The movie has received fairly poor reviews since debuting at the Cannes Film Festival in May, which is not good, especially considering the showing for “Open Range.” Ahough “Horizon” is three hours long, it’s still looking likely to open in the $15 to $20 million range this weekend on the back of the amount of promotion Costner has been doing over the past few months and his continuing popularity.

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This weekend offers a number of international releases in fairly wide release, with the Telugu-language sci-fi action film “Kalki 2898 AD” and the anime “Blue Lock The Movie – Episode Nagi” both being released nationwide. Opening on Thursday, “Kalki” stars Bollywood mega-superstar Prabhas, who starred in the “Baahubali” movies from “RRR” director S.S. Rajamouli (who also makes a cameo in this, apparently). “RRR” opened with $9.5 million in 1,200 theaters back in 2022 on its way to winning an Oscar for Best Song a year later, although his 2017 sequel “Baahubali 2: The Conclusion” opened even bigger with $12.9 million in 425 theaters. Expect “Kalki” to open somewhere around 600 to 700 theaters, which should allow it to end up with $6 million or more over the weekend after a hearty opening Thursday.

Crunchyroll’s Anime offerings have not been doing nearly as well this year, as neither “Spy x Family Code” nor “Haikyu!! The Movie” opening with more than $5 or 6 million. Opening in less than 1,000 theaters, “Blue Lock” should open slightly lower with $3 to 4 million, as it’s facing way more competition in theaters.

Also this weekend, Searchlight will expand Yorgos Lanthimos‘ “Kinds of Kindness,” starring Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Hong Chau and Margaret Qualley, into over 500 theaters this weekend, which should be enough for it to break into the top 10 with $2 to $3 million.

The same probably won’t be the case for Annie Baker‘s “Janet Planet,” starring Julianne Nicholson, which also opened in just a couple New York theaters last weekend and will probably expand to a few hundred theaters, not enough for it to get into the Top 10.

Also, Dakota Johnson and Sean Penn star in Christy Hall‘s “Daddio” about a taxi driver and passenger who connect over the length of a trip from the airport, which Sony Pictures Classics will platform this weekend after playing various festivals.

Check back on Sunday to see how these movies do, as well as a preview for the month of July later this week.

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