Jhonkensy Noel Arrives in the Big Leagues

Let’s get ready for some Jhonk Donks

The Cleveland Guardians have called up right-handed hitting first-baseman/rightfielder Jhonkensy Noel to swap spots with Johnathan Rodriguez on the major league and Triple-A rosters.

Johnathan Rodriguez had 40 plate appearances and did two things well - take walks (at a 22.5% rate) and hit the ball hard (47% rate). Unfortunately, he also struck out at a 35% rate, had an 82% groundball rate, and did not look good defensively. Those three issues reflect some red flags that arose in his minor league profile, so it appears he is returning to Columbus to try to find some additional launch angle and plate discipline.

Jhonkensy Noel, himself, should be an encouraging reminder to Rodriguez that a player can grow and unlock new levels of skills over time. Since being added to the 40-man roster in the fall of 2021 to April 30, 2024, Noel had a 93 wRC+, a 26.1/8.3 K/BB/9, and a .229 ISO and a swinging strike rate up in the 15% range. When he hit the ball, which wasn’t super often, he hit it hard, and he had excellent numbers against left-handed pitching, but at the end of April, I was wondering if the team experience a roster crunch if they might try to sneak Noel through waivers.

Then, the calendar hit May and since then Noel has gone nuclear. He has put up 167 wRC+, 18.1/7.8 K/BB% and hit 14 home runs. He has also done this with a 1.013 OPS against RHP and only a .706 OPS against LHP (which, given his past performance, is fair to dismiss as noise from a small sample). Most excitingly, many of his underlying metrics analyzing swing decisions have dramatically improved, as analyzed by Thomas Nestico of @TJStats on Twitter:

Noel absolutely crushes baseballs:

Here’s what FanGraphs had to say about Noel prior to this season (and his breakout), when they had him ranked 35th in the Cleveland system:

Noel has been a power-hitting prospect of note for the last several years, as he had absurd exit velocities for a teenage hitter in the lower levels of the minors. Poor plate discipline has begun to have a more meaningful impact on Noel’s performance as he has climbed the minor league ladder, and as he has become a relatively immobile first base-only athlete (especially for his age), it looks increasingly less likely that he will be able to clear the high offense bar necessary for a hitter with his flaws. Because the Guardians are so starved for power, it’s plausible Noel will be up and down this year if one of their thumpers gets hurt. This is a fringe 40-man guy who (and it’s rare for me to write this about such a young player) is probably two years away from being a candidate for pro ball in Asia.

MLB Pipeline ranked Noel 26th in the Guardians system and evaluated his outfield play as limited in range and speed but possessing an excellent arm.

Noel’s second greatest asset beyond excellent exit velocities has always been his age, as he has yet to turn 23 years old. So, it’s very exciting to see him figure a few things out versus the best pitching the minor leagues have to offer and it’s a good time for the Guardians to explore what he can offer before they enter trade deadline season and explore the potential to add a right-handed power bat. Maybe they already have one of those at home in Noel, who would have to be added to the active roster in 2025 or pushed through waivers, anyway.

I’ve never met Noel but have only heard good things about him and his teddy-bear-like persona. He will make his major league debut tonight at first base as the team gives Josh Naylor an extra day off to rest some of the bumps and bruises he has sustained. Good luck, Jhonkensy! Let’s see some Jhonk Donks sailing out of major league stadiums just like we have at Triple-A!