Odds increase for possible tropical storm to form in Atlantic this weekend
A tropical storm could develop this weekend from a tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean off Africa as it moves slowly toward the far eastern Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center said “environmental conditions are forecast to be unusually conducive for late June” in the Atlantic.
Positioned several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, which are about 300 miles off the west coast of Africa, the tropical wave had become better organized by Wednesday night. It is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend while several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, the chain of islands in the far eastern Caribbean.
As of 2 a.m. Thursday, forecasters said it has a 70% chance of developing in the next seven days and a 40% chance in the next two days. It is expected to move west at 15 to 20 mph, the hurricane center said.
Meanwhile, forecasters are also watching a tropical wave over the west-central Caribbean Sea that could develop, though it has lower odds.
The system was creating large but disorganized showers and storms, and could develop this weekend while quickly moving west over the western Caribbean or southwestern Gulf of Mexico, according to the hurricane center.
As of 2 a.m. Thursday, it had a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days.
The western Gulf of Mexico generated the 2024 season’s first tropical storm last week. Dubbed Alberto, the system made landfall in Mexico 250 miles south of the U.S. border, but sent storm surge and flood to spots 500 miles away in Louisiana.
The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began June 1, is expected to be extremely active.
In its annual May outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
In addition, NOAA has forecast four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, meaning those that are Category 3 or above.
Experts at Colorado State University stated in their 2024 forecast that the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
Forecasters say that the record-warm water temperatures that now cover much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic was already as hot as it usually is in mid-August — peak hurricane season.
Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.