A Canada Election Didn’t Go As Planned. Is it a Harbinger of Things to Come?

Special elections, or by-elections as they are called in Canada, are often said to be harbingers of the change that one might expect to see in an upcoming general election.

In Canada, it’s trickier to make predictions because the ruling party can call a snap election at any time to prolong and consolidate its power if it thinks the wind is blowing in the right direction. The last general election in Canada was one of these snap elections. It was held during the pandemic even though Trudeau had promised not to do so — just one Trudeau lie among many. In any event, he did win but was only able to form a minority government. In normal times such a government usually lasts only around two years before a vote of no confidence brings it down. However, Trudeau has formed an informal coalition with the socialist New Democratic Party (NDP) because, since both plummeted drastically in the polls, they have held on together for dear life. The smart money says that there won’t be another general election for another year or so when it will be legally required. In the meantime, we have just had a very interesting special election in the electoral district next door to the one that I live in. (READ MORE: Gavin Newsom Is on Top of the World)

Monday evening I was a volunteer scrutineer for the Conservative Party during the counting of ballots at one of the polling stations. This is something that I hadn’t done for some time but I remember well the very first time I did it. I was 14 years old at the time, so when I turned up at the polling station a debate ensued as to whether someone too young to vote should be allowed to participate in the counting of the ballots. Canadian federal elections are run by a federal agency called Elections Canada that sends one of its agents, called a returning officer, to every polling station to supervise the proceedings. This person has the final word in all disputes. In the end on that occasion, the returning officer determined that though I was not yet eligible to vote I was quite capable of counting ballots and also of judging whether any had been spoiled. Consequently, I was duly seated around a table with representatives from the other parties, the ballot boxes were opened and we examined and counted the contents one at a time. Yesterday evening I was pleased to learn that aside from a few minor procedural tweaks nothing had changed compared to my earliest experience in ballot counting.

A Fiercely Contested Election in a Liberal District

Canada is known for the integrity of its elections, so much so that she is often asked to act as an observer in the elections of sketchy foreign countries. In Canada, before each election, the voting roles are refreshed. An agent of Elections Canada visits every residence in the district to determine how many eligible voters live there. Very little mail-in voting is permitted and although there is some early voting, most of it occurs on election day and all voters must show up with a government-issued photo ID that shows the same address registered on the voting list. The returning officer is there is ensure that no exceptions are made to that rule. (READ MORE: That Debate Might Be the End of the Road for … Barack Obama)

Not surprisingly, with the Liberals so deep underwater in the national polls, yesterday’s election was fiercely contested. It was considered to be a safe seat for the Liberals because they had held it for 30 years and during the last election they won it by 24 points. Nevertheless, under the circumstances, the party sent in some of its top guns including Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland to ensure they did not lose it. Also, not surprisingly, at the polling station where I was an observer for the Conservative party, the only other party that was represented was the Liberals. Apparently, the other parties decided to write this one off or perhaps they just didn’t have enough personnel on hand to cover all of the bases during the ground game. As we counted the ballots and the Conservative candidate started well and pulled ahead in the count the Liberal observer stood beside me red-faced with fury written all over her face — honestly, for a while there I was afraid that she might actually stroke out. We were observing at a rather small station that had needed to use only one ballot box to contain 86 ballots. In our only disagreement, the liberal scrutineer and I disputed over this number. Our dispute was quickly settled by the rule book at hand — we didn’t need to summon the returning officer. At the end of the count, the Conservative candidate had 41 votes to the Liberals 31 with the rest going to sundry other candidates and I was pleased to have helped preside over a happy result for my party.

This count was encouraging, although not typical. The Liberals were getting superior numbers at other polling stations and by the time I showed up at the restaurant where the party was to be held, we were trailing by about 500 votes. Naturally, many eyes were glued to a big screen where the results were being tabulated as they came in. This is Canada and it was the evening of the final game of the NHL season between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers, half the screen displayed the ongoing game and viewers alternated their comments between what was going on at the polls and what was happening on the ice. No Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup since 1994, and since hockey is Canada’s national sport, it was disappointing when the Oilers lost to the Panthers. When I left the party at midnight about 80 percent of the ballots had been counted and the Conservatives were still trailing the Liberals by about 500 votes.

So wasn’t it just great to wake up the next morning to learn that we had won! We had flipped a rock-solidly safe Liberal seat by a two-point margin, enough to guarantee that with Canada’s strict voting procedures, this result would not change even if there were to be a recount.

What Explains the Change in Canada?

There are different ways that one might think of explaining this. There is, of course, the general discontent that I have already mentioned: There is ongoing inflation caused by wanton government spending, house prices, and rent have doubled since the Liberals took power, feckless carbon taxes are hurting middle-class pocketbooks, and dissatisfaction with the general divisiveness of Liberal rule, the most salient feature of which has been divide and conquer. (READ MORE: How Conservatives Can Finally Get Judicial Nominations Right)

But there is another noteworthy factor that I think came into play in this particular district. Fifteen percent of its population happens to be Jewish, most of whom have traditionally voted Liberal. Since Oct. 7 that demographic has been feeling deeply betrayed. Anti-Semitism in Canada, as elsewhere, is surging and the Liberals have been doing nothing substantial to counteract it. On the contrary, they have been posing false equivalents between it and Islamophobia. Moreover, Canada has turned against Israel at the UN, so much so that after a vote early in the war with Hamas its leader, Dr. Ghazi Hamad has publicly thanked Canada for her support. This year during Toronto’s annual Walk for Israel 50,000 people showed up, about three times previous showings.

Despite traditionally voting Liberal, the Jewish population of Canada is generally somewhat more conservative than its American counterpart. With the Biden administration constantly hampering and restraining Israel’s war effort by withholding arms shipments and trying to help the Israeli opposition topple the Netanyahu government, who knows how American Jewry will vote in November? Though it won’t be happening any time soon America sure could use some Canadian observers come November.

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