Election fraud and the Bob Good Effect 

Last week began with allegations of election fraud by Rep. Bob Good (R) in Virginia's 5th Congressional District primary race, yet another false claim evincing a deeply troubling trend in American politics.  

Good, trailing his Donald Trump-backed opponent, John McGuire, by a slim margin, has resorted to what strongly appears to be thoroughly baseless allegations of irregularities, including a debunked conspiracy theory about precinct evacuations due to fires.  

We all need to stop and think about what’s going on here. What Bob Good is doing is furthering a pattern of behavior that has become increasingly common in recent years, particularly among candidates aligned with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.  

Good's actions mirror those of Trump, who famously contested the results of the 2020 presidential election without evidence. Trump began laying the groundwork for these claims months before the election, making over 150 statements about fraudulent ballots and the alleged dangers of mail-in voting starting in April 2020. After the election results began to indicate Trump's potential loss, he intensified his efforts to construct a narrative of a stolen election, claiming widespread fraud perpetrated by Democrats. 

Despite the lack of concrete evidence to support these claims, the belief in a fraudulent 2020 election became a central tenet of the MAGA movement. This narrative persisted even after numerous investigations and court cases failed to substantiate any widespread fraud. The unwavering faith in these claims, despite factual refutation, demonstrates the power of belief over rational argument and evidence.

To have actual election fraud, we need illegal interference with the voting process that aims to manipulate the outcome of an election. To constitute actual election fraud, two key legal conditions must be met. 

First, there must be intentional and deliberate action to subvert the electoral process. This can include activities like ballot box stuffing, voter intimidation, tampering with voting machines, or deliberately miscounting votes. The action must be willful and purposeful, not accidental or due to human error. 

Second, the fraudulent activity must have the potential to affect the election results. While it's not necessary to prove that the fraud actually changed the outcome, there needs to be a reasonable possibility that it could have influenced the final tally. Additionally, the activity must violate specific election laws or regulations, which can vary by jurisdiction. 

Historically, instances of genuine, widespread election fraud in the United States have been rare. When they have occurred, they've been thoroughly investigated and addressed. For example, the 1927 Poughkeepsie mayoral election saw widespread fraud, including ballot box stuffing and voter intimidation, leading to a new election. In 1997, a Miami mayoral election was overturned due to absentee ballot fraud. 

Real election fraud in the United States is actually a very rare beast. These isolated incidents pale in comparison to the sweeping, unsubstantiated claims we see today. The current trend of crying "fraud" at the slightest hint of an unfavorable outcome threatens to undermine the very foundations of our democracy. 

I see several important factors contributing to the prevalence of these baseless claims: 

Political polarization 
As the divide between political parties deepens, losing candidates find it easier to convince their base that the other side must have cheated. 

Social media echo chambers 
Misinformation spreads rapidly online, allowing conspiracy theories to gain traction quickly. 

Erosion of trust in institutions 
Declining faith in government and media makes people more susceptible to alternative narratives. 

The Trump effect 
The former president's persistent false claims about the 2020 election have normalized this behavior for many politicians. 

Lack of consequences 
Politicians who make false claims often face little to no repercussions, encouraging others to follow suit. 

It’s hard to overstate the dangers of this trend to cry political wolf. It undermines public confidence in elections, potentially leading to decreased voter turnout and civil unrest. It also strains election officials and systems, diverting resources from genuine improvements to addressing baseless claims. 

To combat this issue moving forward, we need a multi-faceted approach built on the foundation of carrots and sticks.  

The first stick needs to be strong penalties for knowingly false election fraud claims. A big fine, at an absolute minimum, is a start.  

But that’s only the start. We need to talk about what election fraud actually is so it’s not this amorphous, incomprehensible thing. Part of that needs to be far greater transparency in election administration, as well as actual and functional bipartisan condemnation of baseless fraud allegations.  

The more we talk about what election fraud is and isn’t, the more we help people critically evaluate information that allows them to better understand what is on the line of politics and election administration and what is on the line of legal fraud.  

Aron Solomon is the chief strategy officer for Amplify. He has taught entrepreneurship at McGill University and the University of Pennsylvania.