Kurtenbach: It’s Lauri Markkanen or bust for the Warriors

If you squint and look at just the right angle, you can see a Warriors team that improved this offseason.

Sure, Klay Thompson — amid a surprising amount of one-sided acrimony — walked out the door, and yes, the Warriors did not turn Chris Paul’s expiring contract into, well, anything.

But with both of those players off the team’s books, the Warriors were able to sign De’Antony Melton — a premier perimeter defender — to a full mid-level exception contract ($12.82 million), and add Kyle “Slo-Mo” Anderson via a sign-and-trade deal. And perhaps Buddy Hield will use up the rest of that roughly $16 million trade exception the Warriors received from the Mavericks for Thompson.

In crude, but simple terms, the Warriors traded Thompson and Paul for Melton, Anderson, and Hield (pending the Warriors and Sixers finalizing a sign-and-trade first reported by Shams Charania Tuesday night).

Is that a win?

Sure. You can easily say the Warriors are now better on defense and just about equivalent on offense.

Let’s just call it a wash. The Warriors squandered the Paul exit and lost one of their great all-time players (that matters, too) in unceremonious fashion, but ultimately scrapped, clawed, and fought to pull it back to something close to even. Credit to general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. for that.

But pulling back to even isn’t good enough for the Warriors because, as you might recall, the team stunk last year.

I know it’s fashionable to say the Golden State was not, actually, far off in 2023-24. I get it: It’s fun to revise history. And folks are having a ton of fun noting that they won 46 games (pretty good!) despite Draymond Green’s suspensions.

But ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I submit 48 minutes of April basketball in Sacramento into evidence.

I rest my case.

The Warriors were the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference. They didn’t even sniff the real playoffs. And the West is only improving.

So while they’re not “running it back”, they haven’t pushed the rock appreciably further up the hill, either.

No, this simply will not do — not if the Warriors want to make something of the final years of Steph Curry’s incredible tenure.

So, heaven help us all, the fate of the Warriors rests in the hands of Danny Ainge.

Yes, there are countless trade options for the Warriors, but one player stands out above the rest — Jazz 7-footer Lauri Markkanen.

Of all the reasonable trade possibilities, only Markkanen provides bonafide secondary scoring, scheme, and temperament fit, as well as the possibility of keeping the rest of the team’s roster relatively intact.

In short, he’s the guy for the Warriors.

And Ainge, Utah’s top basketball executive, is going to hold him ransom.

The Knicks just traded five first-round picks and tossed in a first-round pick swap for Mikal Bridges, a wonderful player who has never made an NBA All-Star Game.

Markkanen — who has been an All-Star and averaged 23 points per game on 48 percent shooting (40 percent from beyond the arc, 90 percent from the free-throw line) is worth just as much, if not more. Ainge is going to get every bit of that more, and perhaps a bit more.

And unless the Warriors want to jettison Jonathan Kuminga (they don’t), they won’t have any power to tell him “no.”

Golden State is sitting on a roster with a star in the final years of supernova status, a whole lot of role players, and no clear No. 2.

There’s no one to carry the offensive load on a night when Curry is off or sitting. There’s no true secondary offensive threat to pull defenders (two, three, hell, toss in a fourth) at the 6-foot-3 guard in late-game situations.

As such, there’s no reason to take the Warriors seriously for next season.

Is Markkanen the best possible player for that No. 2 job?

Not really.

I’d prefer someone who could score off the dribble — Markkanen is a dead-eye shooter off the catch and a solid post player, but he’s not doing much (if any) creating off the bounce.

But Markkanen is the best No. 2 option the Warriors can reasonably land. He’d fit right in next to Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, and the team’s new cast of role players.

All it would cost to land him is a total annihilation of the Warriors’ future. It’s a full-on second mortgage.

But these are desperate times.

The Warriors have control of their first-round draft picks from 2025 to 2031 (that’s as far out as the league will let teams trade), with only the 2030 pick in jeopardy (it’s top-20-protected from Washington as part of the Jordan Poole-for-Paul trade.) The Jazz will take every single one the Warriors can trade. That’s 2025, ’27, ’29, and ’31. Then they’ll do pick swaps (the right to change picks) in the off-years (with the ’30 pick carrying those restrictions).

In all, that’s four first-round picks and three first-round pick swaps.

Toss in a few second-round picks and perhaps a young player (you know Ainge has to see some of himself in Brandin Podziemski) on top of the requisite salary matches (Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney stand out here), and the Jazz might — just might — make the deal.

And that’s if another team — New Orleans, San Antonio, Sacramento — doesn’t make a stronger offer.

Would landing Markkanen change the Warriors’ fortunes?

At that price, he better.

But as it stands now, we know what the Warriors’ fortunes will be, and that won’t pay the bills at Chase Center.

Something has to give if the Dubs are going to be competitive in the West in the coming seasons.

And that something, it seems, is every ounce of the Warriors’ future draft capital.

Amazingly, it has come to this, but here we are: it’s Markkanen or bust for the Dubs.