What do the Guardians see in Matthew Boyd?
What can we expect from the veteran lefty?
The Guardians have signed veteran left-handed pitcher Matthew Boyd as he returns from Tommy John surgery in hopes of shoring up a starting rotation that has been in the bottom three teams in MLB in 2024.
Ironically, right before Boyd hurt his elbow and got Tommy John, he put up two excellent starts against the Royals and Twins, respectively.
Above, you can see the vision for Boyd. Operating from a three-quarter’s arm slot, when he is on, his stuff has good horizontal movement and average vertical movement. He keeps hitters off-balance with a 91-94 mph four-seam fastball (thrown about 39% of the time), a 90 mph sinker (thrown 7% of the time), an excellent gyro slider (28.4% of the time), a good changeup (19% of the time) and a mediocre curveball (7% of the time).
One change I can see the Guardians asking Boyd to make is to allocate some of his pitch mix currently devoted to his four-seam fastball to his sinker and seeing if he can develop a little more vertical drop to the pitch for the purposes of inducing more groundballs (his sinker has about a 50% groundball rate), taking further advantage of the Guardians’ excellent middle-infield defense. Boyd’s slider was also getting groundballs at around a 50% rate before his injury when put in play, so the good vertical movement he has on his best pitches may simply enable him to help induce enough weak contact where the lackluster horizontal movement isn’t as much of a concern.
Boyd is an interesting pitcher because the pitches one would normally expect to have good horizontal break - the slider and the curveball - don’t, and the pitches one would expect to have good drop - the sinker and the changeup - don’t. So, part of the Guardians’ philosophy should be to capitalize on that unique approach to give hitters a different look than what they normally see. Leaning into utilizing both his breaking sinker and the dropping slider, as both were incredibly effective pitches for Boyd in 2023, should be a good start at offering opponents a rare challenge.
When Boyd begins rehab appearances for Columbus, fans should monitor his pitch mix and check the resulting strikeout and groundball rates. It may take a little bit for his velocity to return, but it’s clear to see why he is worth a look to a team in need of help in the rotation.
It’s difficult to say exactly the kind of pitcher Boyd will be upon returning and rehabbing from Tommy John and how long it will take him to get a feel for all of his pitches. But, over his last six starts in 2023, Boyd had a K/BB/9 of 10.15/2.31 and a groundball rate of 44% and an xFIP of 3.58. That’ll play, friends, and looks a little more like a #3 starter than an inning’s eating #5. It’ll be pitching coach Carl Willis, pitching coordinator Stephen Osterer, and Columbus pitching coach Owen Dew and assistant pitching coach Andrew Moore to help Boyd rediscover that form in time to help the team sometime in August.