Fragmented demand means there’s not just one beer industry anymore

There are a lot of important economic indexes: the consumer price index, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, the Leading Economic Index. But what about the Beer Purchasers’ Index? That reached a three-year high last month, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association, which tracks that metric.

The Fourth of July is generally the top beer-consuming holiday in the U.S., according to the trade group. And it looks like the industry has a bit more to celebrate this year, after a tough 2023. Beer sales slumped last year, hitting lows not seen since the 1990s.

There’s not really one beer industry anymore, said Bernardo Silva, a beverage industry consultant at AlixPartners. 

“The general theme — not only in beer, but across other food and beverage categories — has been what I call the ‘fragmentation of demand,'” he said.

That fragmentation started with the craft beer revolution more than a decade ago and has continued with the rise of flavored hard seltzers and canned cocktails.

“Customers have become a little bit more interested in things that are unique,” Silva said.

And drinkers are open to trying different products — a beer drinker in college is no longer a beer drinker for life, said Matt Gacioch, staff economist with the Brewers Association.

“Beverage alcohol consumers are starting to spread their dollars across alcohol types and categories more than they have in the past,” he said.

Beer has been losing market share to spirits in recent years as the price gap between the two has narrowed. 

Plus, the craft beer explosion in the 2010s has matured. Gacioch said many breweries are now trying to differentiate themselves by offering in-person experiences like food and music, or novel flavor profiles.

“Fruity flavors or, you know, botanical flavors, or pushing on hop flavors,” he said. 

The low- and no-alcohol segment is also getting frothy, said David Steinman at Beer Marketer’s Insights. 

“Everyone’s kind of following this trend, and a lot of companies are seeing growth from it,” he said.

Nonalcoholic beer sales make up a single-digit share of total beer sales, Steinman said, but the segment is growing fast, with entries from Blue Moon, Corona, Heineken and Budweiser.

Speaking of the King of Beers — Bud Light has been dethroned as the top-selling beer by dollar value after a culture-war boycott last year. That title now belongs to Modelo Especial.