Can Beyonce’s ‘Cowboy Carter’ still win Grammys in spite of CMA snub?

Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” has been one of the most talked about releases of the year, with both fans and detractors weighing in on the pop/R&B star’s venture into country and Americana music and aesthetics. Naturally, a major talking point even before the album’s release was its Grammy potential, with many eager to see Beyoncé finally receive an Album of the Year prize. But before winning that top prize, there are a few factors we need to consider.

What typically signals a win in the top category is support elsewhere, especially in the country sphere, where all country Album of the Year winners have also been nominated and won. But how well will Beyoncé do exactly in terms of supporting nominations and wins in that field. While we know pop, R&B and hip-hop voters love Bey, her single “Texas Hold ‘Em,” which was a big hit with the general public, stalled in country formats, peaking at only number-33 on country radio. By comparison, Shaboozey, who is featured on “Cowboy Carter,” has netted a number-one country radio hit with “A Bar Song (Tipsy).”

That said, Grammy voters are not necessarily focused on charts, especially in country. A lot of country field winners are not the biggest hits in their lineups; just look at recent wins by artists like Chris Stapleton, Kacey Musgraves, and Willie Nelson. Instead, voters tend to honor impact and acclaim, both of which “Cowboy Carter” has. One could argue, for example, that Shaboozey wouldn’t have achieved his breakout success without the Beyoncé co-sign. Plus, Black country artists in general have reported a surge since the release of her album, and Black audiences are consuming country music significantly more since the Beyoncé release. That in itself should be enough for the country industry to get onboard, right?

Well, not quite. Even with all that “Cowboy Carter” has done for the country industry, there’s still no evidence that insiders are embracing Beyoncé fully. Country radio has been unenthusiastic to play songs from the album, with the second single “II Most Wanted,” featuring Miley Cyrus, not even making a dent on country radio. The latest Americana Honors and Awards nominations featured no noms for Beyoncé either, despite her album coming out in time to be eligible. A real teller, though, was the Country Music Association Awards. Her lack of any nominations doesn’t necessarily mean Beyoncé won’t do well at the Grammys, but it’s a hurdle.

What’s more, there has been relatively little promo for “Cowboy Carter” — no Grand Ole Opry performance, no appearance at the ACMs or CMTs, no interviews in country radio stations. In the pop world, this isn’t typically a significant issue for a pop culture powerhouse like Beyoncé; she pretty much was MIA in terms of promoting her previous record, “Renaissance,” and other artists like Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift have gotten away with having complete eras with very little promo. In country, however, interaction with the industry is vital. That may also be why an act as popular as Zach Bryan, a streaming behemoth, tends to underperform at country awards — he is not playing the country game, and the industry has no interest in rewarding someone who, essentially, doesn’t grant them anything in return.

It’s going to be interesting to see the industry’s opinion on “Cowboy Carter” going forward. The album’s CMA shutout may create a strong narrative around the exclusion of Beyoncé from these spaces that could rally Grammy voters to support the record. Ideally, the rest of the industry will welcome “Cowboy Carter” with open arms and treat Beyoncé as one of their own.