Who should the Royals add to the 40-man roster this off-season?

The Royals should have some roster flexibility.

Regardless of how this season ends, the Royals will look to capitalize off their surprising turnaround with a smart off-season. Their decisions will be impacted by the 40-man roster, their active and reserve roster of players. This winter, they will need to decide whether or not to add certain players that are eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December.

The Rule 5 draft allows teams to select players from other organizations that are eligible and have not been added to the 40-man roster and thus “protected.” Players are eligible after four seasons in the minors if they signed at age 19 or later, or after five seasons if they signed younger than age 19. That means this year, the college draftees from 2021 become eligible, while all signees from 2020 and before are eligible.

The Royals currently have a full 40-man roster, although after the World Series they have seven free agents who will come off the roster - Paul DeJong, Robbie Grossman, Yuli Gurriel, Garrett Hampson, Michael Lorenzen, Tommy Pham, and Will Smith. Adam Frazier has an $8.5 million mutual option that is likely to be declined by the club, and Michael Wacha has a $16 million player option he is likely to decline to become a free agent.

The Royals will also need to activate Josh Taylor and Kyle Wright from the 60-day Injured List. Taylor and Wright could become non-tender candidates, as could pitcher Carlos Hernández. If the Royals wanted to open up even more spots, some candidates to be designated for assignment include pitcher Jonathan Bowlan, first baseman Nick Pratto, and outfielders Nelson Velázquez, and Drew Waters.

Here are the players eligible for the Rule 5 draft that the Royals will consider protecting:

Lock to be added

Noah Cameron

Cameron was the most impressive pitcher in the upper minors for the Royals, posting a 3.08 ERA in 25 starts between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. He actually improved upon a promotion, lowering his ERA from 3.63 in Double-A to 2.32 in Triple-A, while maintaining his strikeout rate, and dropping his walk rate from 7.7 to 5.1 percent. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was fourth-best in the International League among pitchers with at least 50 innings. The 25-year-old lefty is ranked as the #12 prospect in the farm system by MLB Pipeline and #14 by Baseball America. He’s likely a candidate for a rotation spot next year, or at least a long relief role, so the Royals seem very likely to protect him.

Likely to be added

Eric Cerantola

The Canadian-born right-hander has a big arm that can throw in the mid-90s, but he has struggled with command at times. A former fifth-round pick out of Mississippi State, Cerantola posted a solid 3.01 ERA in the minors this year, with 100 strikeouts in 71 ²⁄₃ innings, but 50 walks. He had a 4.05 ERA in 12 games for Omaha, walking 8 in 13 ¹⁄₃ innings. He has a big 6’5’’ frame and could compete for a bullpen spot if he can limit his walks.

Austin Cox

Cox set a MLB record by not allowing a hit to the first 39 batters he faced in the big leagues, and he looked solid with the Royals in 2023, with a 4.54 ERA in 35 2/3 innings. But he tore his ACL late in the year, ending his season He was designated for assignment and re-signed to a minor league deal this year. In 36 games for Omaha, he had a 4.08 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 53 innings, but with 6.3 walks-per-nine-innings. He has had some MLB success with a solid cutter and could compete for a bullpen role, but he is already 27 years old.

Tyson Guerrero

Guerrero had some shoulder issues early in his pro career but has pitched better at higher levels. He posted a 3.69 ERA with 109 strikeouts in 102 ¹⁄₃ innings at Double-A this year, struggling in four Triple-A starts. The 25-year-old lefty is ranked #24 in the system by Baseball America and #27 by MLB Pipeline. He throws in the low-90s with a sweeping slider, so his future may be as a lefty specialist.

Could be added

Luinder Avila

Avila is one of the younger players on this list, making him more likely to be protected. He had a 3.81 ERA in 19 starts for Northwest Arkansas with nearly a strikeout per-inning. His walk rate did spike up this year to 4.7 per-nine-innings. MLB Pipeline ranks him as #26 in the farm system, noting a strong work ethic and competitiveness on the mound. His solid numbers combined with his youth and upside make him likely to be protected.

Chandler Champlain

The Royals got Champlain in 2022 from the Yankees in the Andrew Benintendi trade. He had a solid 2023 season, and was dominant in seven Double-A starts this year, but really struggled in Triple-A with a 5.74 ERA in 100 ¹⁄₃ innings with a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio. The 25-year-old right-hander throws a 91-94 mph fastball with a curve and slider, and could be a back-end starter someday.

Ben Hernandez

Hernandez was a second-round pick in 2020, one of just six players the Royals drafted that year and the only high schooler. He was praised for having a plus change up at a young age and was a top 15 prospect in the system for a few years, but has fallen out of the Baseball America and MLB Pipeline rankings. He pitched pretty limited innings his first few seasons, and pitched in relief this year for low-A Columbia and High-A Quad Cities. He had a solid 3.83 ERA, but with low strikeout rates. He turned 23 this summer, so there may be some upside left, but he seems like a reach to be drafted by a team.

Noah Murdock

Murdock went unprotected and undrafted last year after a rough Double-A season, but he bounced back with a terrific season in the bullpen this yaer. He had a 2.22 ERA in 16 relief outings for the Naturals before being moved up to Omaha where he posted a 3.19 ERA in 28 games. He struck out well over a hitter-per-inning, but with a high walk rate of 5.8 per-nine-innings. The former seventh-round pick out of Virginia is already 26 and has struggled with command, making him unlikely to be protected.

John Rave

Rave improved his performance from last year after being unprotected. He smashed 21 home runs in 127 games for Omaha, hitting .263/.350/.481 with 17 steals. The lefty hitter actually hit lefties better than righties this year, and has been on a tear in the last month of the season. He is 26 years old and probably profiles as a fourth outfielder, but he might be worth a look as a bench bat.

Anthony Simonelli

A former 16th-round pick out of Virginia Tech, Simonelli posted his best season in Double-A this year with a 2.35 ERA in 33 relief outings, with 74 strikeouts in 57 ¹⁄₃ innings and average walk rates. He was hit around a bit in a few games at Triple-A, and will turn 26 in December. He has a deep arsenal for a reliever, throwing a fastball, cutter, changeup, and sweeper, but isn’t a high risk to be selected.

Evan Sisk

Sisk was picked up from the Twins in 2023 in the Michael A. Taylor trade. He has been a dominant Triple-A lefty reliever, with the third-best strikeout rate (34.7 percent) in the International League among any pitcher with at least 50 innings. He got better as the season went along - from June 8 on he had a 0.84 ERA with opponents hitting .139. Lefties overall hit just .098/.914/.110 against him, so the 27-year-old could be a candidate for a bullpen role with the Royals next year.

Tyler Tolbert

Speed can be a coveted tool in the Rule 5 draft, and Tolbert brings it in spades. He went 60-for-60 in stolen base attempts in 2022, and this year he swiped 48 bases in 53 attempts. He doesn’t bring much offense, hitting .260/.339/.354 with four home runs in 101 games in Double-A before hitting .132 in 26 Triple-A games. But the 26-year-old can play a solid shortstop and with elite speed, could be an intriguing bench option.

Jacob Wallace

The Royals got Wallace from the Red Sox in a trade for Wyatt Mills in 2022. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League last year, and was solid for the Naturals with a 3.98 ERA in 42 relief outings with 12.2 strikeouts-per-nine innings. He is already 26, but has some velocity with a fastball that sits around 96-97 mph, according to reports.

Others who could be protected: Catcher Luca Tresh, infielders Devin Mann, Lizandro Rodriguez, Peyton Wilson, outfielder River Town, pitchers Andrew Hoffman, Beck Way