Pager, Walkie-Talkie Attacks on Hezbollah Harmed Terror Group’s Military Effectiveness, Says Leading Think Tank

The sophisticated attack this week on communications devices used by members of Hezbollah likely harmed the Iran-backed terrorist group’s military effectiveness, according to a leading think tank in war studies.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in conjunction with the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, detailed some of the implication’s of the alleged Israeli operation in its daily Iran Update newsletter, which “provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.”

The attack began on Tuesday, when thousands of Hezbollah members were seriously wounded when the pagers they use to communicate exploded.

Videos shared on social media showed scenes of chaos across Lebanon — where Hezbollah is based and wields significant political and military influence — with hospitals overflowing with victims and some explosions reportedly taking place in apartments and houses.

“The attack has likely had several negative effects on Hezbollah’s military effectiveness, at least temporarily,” ISW wrote. “The attack likely disrupted some internal communications across Hezbollah, especially given the extent to which Hezbollah has been relying on pagers in recent months. The nature and scale of the attack also likely stoked confusion and shock among some Hezbollah members.”

It continued: “These effects could drive general paranoia within Hezbollah as well, given that Israel has demonstrated repeatedly in recent months how deeply it has infiltrated Iranian and Iranian-backed networks.”

Then on Wednesday, hand-held radios used by Hezbollah detonated in a second round of blasts. The walkie-talkies were said to be part of Hezbollah’s emergency communications systems for use during a conflict with Israel, which borders southern Lebanon.

At least 37 people were killed, and about 3,000 were wounded in the explosions over both days.

Because of these attacks, ISW said, “Hezbollah has limited options to rapidly reestablish long-range communications to reestablish effective command and control over its members in Lebanon and neighboring countries.” It also noted that “Israel’s multi-stage attack on Hezbollah communications will force Hezbollah to urgently reestablish reliable tactical communications in case of an Israeli offensive campaign into Lebanon.”

Experts and several media outlets have said that Israeli intelligence was behind the explosions with a sophisticated, long planned operation, although Israel has neither publicly confirmed nor denied responsibility.

“The goal was to convince Hezbollah that it is in its interest to disconnect itself from Hamas and cut a separate deal for ending the fighting with Israel regardless of a ceasefire in Gaza,” an anonymous source told Axios.

Dr. Eyal Pinko, an Israeli cyber and national security expert, similarly said the operation served as a message to Hezbollah, showcasing vulnerabilities in its security apparatus and serving as a form of deterrence.

“It’s saying that, ‘you’re already being penetrated. We know where you are and what you do. Now look what we can do: In one single shot, in less than a second, we can eliminate almost 3,000 terror operatives,'” Pinko said during a briefing with reporters on Tuesday evening.

Despite Israel’s silence on the explosions, senior Lebanese officials have blamed the Jewish state. So too has Hezbollah, which said Israel would receive “its fair punishment.”

Hezbollah members in the southern suburbs of Beirut were seen on Wednesday “frantically taking out the batteries of any walkie-talkies on them that had not exploded, tossing the parts in metal barrels around them,” Reuters reported.

In such an environment, Hezbollah’s options to reestablish reliable tactical communications in case of an Israeli offensive are relatively limited, and mainly include using couriers. The other options, which include landline, satellite, or mobile phones, can all be easily either tapped or tracked, according to ISW.

“The speed with which Hezbollah can bring up and organize these communication systems will determine how effectively and orderly it can respond to the Israeli attacks or a potential Israeli campaign,” it said.

A source close to Hezbollah, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that the pagers from Tuesday’s detonations were “sabotaged at the source” before being imported by Hezbollah. Meanwhile, one Hezbollah official told Reuters that the explosions marked the “biggest security breach” in the terrorist group’s history.

A day after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack — in which it killed 1,200 people and took another 251 hostage — Hezbollah joined the war on Israel, pummeling northern Israeli communities almost daily with barrages of drones, rockets, and missiles from southern Lebanon. One such attack killed 12 children in the small Druze town of Majdal Shams.

About 80,000 Israelis have been forced to evacuate Israel’s north during that time due to the daily attacks. Most of them have spent the past 11 months living in hotels in other areas of the country.

Israeli leaders have said they seek a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Hezbollah along the border with Lebanon but are prepared to use large-scale military force if needed to ensure all displaced citizens can safely return to their homes. Efforts to make it safe for them to return have so far been unsuccessful, indicating a larger military conflict could be on the horizon.

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