Lawler, Ryan lead challengers in key New York House races

Two New York House incumbents, one from each party, lead their challengers in key races to determine which party will win control of the House in November, a new poll found. 

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey showed Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) leading former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) in the race for New York’s 17^th congressional district by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent. 

Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan (N.Y.) leads Republican Alison Esposito in New York’s 18^th congressional district by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. Seven percent are undecided in both races. 

The two contests are pickup opportunities that Democrats and Republicans are eying as they hope to win control of the House for the next two years. Republicans hold a narrow majority of just a few seats, leaving little margin for losing votes. 

The results mark improvements for both incumbents compared to earlier this month. In that earlier poll, Lawler led by just 1 point and Ryan was up by 5 points. 

The incumbents have an advantage in favorability with voters; 52 percent in each district have a favorable view of Lawler and Ryan. Jones’s favorability rating is 44 percent, while Esposito’s is 41 percent. 

Despite the districts being in New York, which Vice President Harris is expected to carry comfortably, the race between her and former President Trump is tight in both. Harris leads by 3 points in the 17^th district, while Trump is ahead by 1 point in the 18^th district. 

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted in a release that a notable gender gap was observed especially in the Lawler-Jones race. Lawler leads among men by 27 points, while Jones leads among women by 16 points. 

Men are about evenly divided between Ryan and Esposito, but Ryan leads among women by 20 points. 

The polls were conducted from Oct. 24 to 26 among 475 likely voters in the 17^th district and 450 likely voters in the 18^th district. The credibility interval, similar to margin of error, is 4.4 points in the 17^th district and 4.6 points in the 18^th district.