By Antrea Panagiotou

The deadline for the submission of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) to the European Commission, initially set for June 30, has long passed and Cyprus like other EU member states, has not yet prepared it.

NECP, however, is crucial for Cyprus’ climate and energy future, as it outlines the policies and measures that need to be taken by 2030 to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and achieve the transition to a green economy.

In a period of particularly elevated temperatures – June saw temperatures up to 5.7°C above average – it is essential to roll out sound climate and energy policies. This is because, as scientific studies (including those of Nasa, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-IPCC, and the United Nations) have repeatedly shown, the burning of fossil fuels is directly linked to rising temperatures. Indeed, if everything follows its present course predictions of an average temperature rise in Cyprus of 3.5 to even 7°C by 2100 seem increasingly likely.

In this context, climate and energy policymaking is now more vital than ever. Already, last year has seen prolonged periods of heat waves, reduced rainfall and major forest fires, with significant impacts on people’s health (heat stroke episodes and respiratory diseases), nature (loss of biodiversity, changes in water availability) and society in general. Unfortunately, all these are likely to get even worse in the absence of measures to drastically reduce – and eventually zero out – the burning of fossil fuels.

What does the draft NECP say?

The European Union has increased its ambition to reduce GHG emissions by at least 55 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990. In line with the EU’s increased climate targets, the updated draft NECP for Cyprus should provide for a 32 per cent reduction of GHG emissions in non-Emissions Trading System sectors (i.e. sectors other than power generation, cement and tile making) by 2030 compared to 2005. At the same time, it is foreseen to increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) to at least 33 per cent in final energy consumption (the current share of RES 21.5 per cent).

Achieving the aforementioned and other targets set in the NECP, requires a number of measures and policies including, among others, RES and energy savings grant schemes, the installation of RES storage technologies, the implementation of sustainable urban mobility plans (SUMPs), as well as the implementation of a project for the cross-border electricity interconnection between Cyprus and Greece (Great Sea Cable) by 2029, with the aim being to end Cyprus’ energy isolation.

Questionable policies

The latest version of the updated draft NECP demonstrates notable improvements compared to its predecessor submitted in January 2020. Specifically, it provides a more comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic implications arising from the proposed measures. Nevertheless, the measures included are not sufficient to achieve the overall objective of reducing GHG emissions by 32 per cent by 2030 compared to 2005. On the contrary, the measures included achieve a reduction of only 23 per cent, while in case of total inaction, it is estimated that GHG emissions will only decrease by 6.4 per cent by 2030.

Fossil gas

In addition to the revised NECP’s overall failure in meeting the GHG emission reduction target, specific policies included also merit further consideration and analysis. To begin with, as evidenced by the most recent developments in relation to fossil gas – with the termination of the partnership between the Chinese construction company (CPP) and ETYFA – expectations for the introduction of liquified natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2024 are unlikely to materialise.

Yet, further delaying the introduction of fossil gas to the local market, which is also presented as the “bridge fuel” before RES’ full deployment, significantly increases the probability for stranded assets, i.e. capital invested in unprofitable activities in the long term. This is because fossil gas infrastructure has a 25-year life cycle, which means that if we want to keep up with the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting temperature rise to below 2°C (ideally below 1.5°C) compared to pre-industrial levels, it will be necessary to shut down this infrastructure before it reaches its full life cycle. This is because fossil gas’ infrastructure will only reach its full life cycle in 2050, in the best case scenario (if fossil gas is introduced in 2025), by when climate neutrality should have already been achieved.

Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies (CCS)

The first draft of the plan also suggests, although it does not include it as a measure or policy, the inclusion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. In particular, the said technology is proposed alongside the drilling planned in Cyprus’ EEZ (exclusive economic zone) to capture GHG emissions released from hydrocarbon production.

However, CCS technologies carry several uncertainties regarding their level of effectiveness. Firstly, such technology is shown to not be able to capture all CO₂ emissions, while studies have shown that such technologies seem to feed the problem, i.e. they encourage the operation of fossil fuel infrastructure rather than limiting/stopping it, with their effectiveness often being questionable.

It is therefore evident that carbon sequestration rather than substantial emission reductions – or even a gradual complete zeroing of emissions – is not a real solution in the face of the climate crisis. On the contrary, under the guise of a “solution”, it allows the unabated use of fossil fuels.  

Where are people’s voices?

The climate crisis, as a multifaceted and complex problem, impacts all sectors and all citizens, though – certainly – at different levels. Therefore, citizen participation in the making of climate and energy policies is essential for the successful transition of Cyprus to a low – or even zero – emission economy.

Apart from being a fundamental citizens’ right, which stems from both the Aarhus Convention and the EU Governance Regulation, the active participation of civil society in the formulation of climate and energy policies also ensures greater acceptance and compliance of citizens with the new measures/policies.

However, despite the unquestionable advantages of effective public consultation, significant omissions were noted during the first phase of the NECP’s revision. Notably, the public consultation began without an updated NECP draft that incorporated the Fit for 55 amendments, meaning that public comments were limited to the initial, outdated version. What is more, the updated draft wasn’t submitted until July 2023, and only then was a public presentation held.

Nevertheless, it is paramount to inform the public about the country’s climate and energy developments and ensuring their active – and not passive – involvement in the formulation of such policies as these consist of essential building blocks of a functioning and transparent democracy. Regrettably, the authorities’ response to the climate crisis has been proven up to now to be lukewarm. The stakes now remain on the upcoming and long-awaited public consultation expected to be followed by the government on the final text of the NECP.

Steps to climate action

Government policies should reflect the urgency of the climate crisis and the need to act, especially in Cyprus where climate impacts are greater than other parts of the world. In the contrary, delaying the submission of the NECP, the ineffective inclusion of civil society in its preparation and the unambitious policies seen so far, paint a rather bleak picture of Cyprus’ climate policy. At this point, effective climate action is not a matter of choice or preference, but a necessity. That is, if we want to continue living in a prosperous society, away from climate catastrophes and into the opportunities the green transition could offer to the people and the economy of Cyprus.

Antrea Panagiotou is a climate change policy officer