2024 Mets Report Card: David Peterson, SP

David Peterson, LHSP

Player Data: Age: 29 (09/03/1995), B/T: L/L

Primary Stats: 21 G (21 GS), 121.0 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.289 WHIP, 10-3, 101 SO, 50 BB
Advanced Stats: 136 ERA+, 19.8 SO%, 9.0 BB%, 4.58 xERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.10 xFIP, 1.9 fWAR, 2.9 bWAR

2024 Salary: $2.15 million

Grade: A 

2024 Review

David Peterson’s breakout 2024 season came as a surprise to many.

After a disappointing first half of the 2023 season headlined by a 6.46 ERA in the first half and a demotion from the rotation, Peterson rebounded with a 3.65 ERA in the second half of the season. Then, Peterson underwent hip surgery in the offseason and didn’t return until May 2024. It remains unclear as to what extent that hip played a role in Peterson’s tough 2023.

As late as July, the inconsistency of Peterson’s past looked like it would persevere. He’d give the Mets 6+ innings of two-run ball and then concede four runs against the Miami Marlins. He’d strike out eight against the Yankees, only to throw 87 pitches in 4 1/3 innings a couple of starts later against the Pirates. The lefty hurler entered August with a respectable 3.52 ERA, but managed to pitch six or more innings in just four of his ten starts.

Luckily for the Mets, though, Peterson would bear down, pitching a near-perfect August, including seven-inning starts against the Diamondbacks and Padres. The only game New York lost in a Peterson start was on August 3rd, against the Los Angeles Angels. Of course, that wasn’t his fault. Peterson gave the Mets six great innings, yielding just two runs. Mets fans, you remember what happened.

Over 31 2/3 frames in the month of August, the rising talent was brilliant, recording a 1.71 ERA with an OPS against of .535. 

September was an interesting month for Peterson. He started right where he left off in August on September 3, delivering yet another outlandishly good start. He struck out 11 that day as the Mets trounced the Red Sox 7-2.

However, he then gave up five runs (four earned) against the Blue Jays. Of course, in classic Peterson fashion, he’d rebound to go 7 2/3 innings while allowing just one run against the Phillies. 

Altogether, Peterson would end up finishing the regular season strongly. Opponents hit just .229/.286/.309 against him over August and September, and he put up perhaps the strongest stretch of his career in the most vital of times. 

Peterson carried his strong form into the postseason, where the Mets used him as a high-leverage long reliever. He pitched a scoreless frame in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series and then was lights out in the NLDS, baffling Phillies hitters with ease.

After Kodai Senga threw two solid innings in Game 1, Peterson took over. His outing highlighted a pristine performance by the Mets bullpen against a Phillies offense that had lost all of its bravado. Peterson then delivered another pitch-perfect relief appearance, helping the Mets secure a Game 4 victory and advance to the NLCS. 

Peterson’s NLCS run was shakier. Yet, even without poor appearances from the lefty, the outcomes of the games probably wouldn’t have changed. Both games Peterson appeared in were extreme blowouts. Throughout the 2024 postseason, he posted a 3.14 ERA over 14 1/3 innings pitched. It is fair to say that without Peterson, the Mets might not have even reached the Division Series.

2025 Overview

Peterson entered 2024 without high expectations after his lackluster production in 2023. He now must face a different obstacle – facing pressure to replicate his incredible 2024 success.

Peterson is projected to earn a $4.4 million salary in 2025 via arbitration. As the Mets bolster their rotation through free agency, that $4.4 million could end up being one of the biggest bargains in the sport for one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers.

David Stearns has already said that the Mets are adding multiple starters this offseason. However, depending on the direction Stearns goes, Peterson’s role could vary. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana could all leave, and their possible exits leave Peterson as one of New York’s best remaining starter. 

Regardless of how good a pitcher looks on paper, there is always more to the story. Baseball Savant does not commend Peterson’s performance; it has decided he was lucky. They have given him a 4.58 xERA, indicating that he was only marginally better than he was in 2023 based on advanced peripheral stats. Be that as it may, I think the Mets fanbase can agree that they saw Peterson escape tough jams much more often this year, and that can explain why some of his more advanced stats look similar to his brutal 2023 season. If he can continue his clutch work out of trouble, he’ll be fine in the future.

Overall, Peterson provided consistency and established himself as a top of the rotation arm for Queens. His 2.90 ERA, 121 innings pitched, 3.4 BB/9, and especially his 0.6 HR/9 in 2024 are all career-bests. His left handedness and absolutely filthy pitch repertoire have maintained the Mets’ confidence in him through his hardships. Perhaps those difficulties are now taking a backseat. If he can continue to harness his pitches, he can be a dangerous weapon for the New York Mets in 2025 and beyond.

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