Grammys R&B nominations predictions: SZA, Victoria Monét, Usher are back to add to their trophy collections

With past winners including Beyoncé, Prince, and Michael Jackson, the R&B field at the Grammys has given us a great taste of some of the best music ever made. This year the field is quite competitive, so there will likely be a few surprising snubs coming due to how dense it is.

Muni Long’s “Made for Me (Live)” is the probable winner in Best R&B Performance. The track is arguably the biggest R&B hit of the year in terms of urban radio and streaming, similar to Muni’s previous Grammy winner, “Hrs and Hrs.” The original version of “Made for Me” was actually submitted last year, before it really became a hit, therefore making it ineligible this year, hence her submitting a live version. Still, all the goodwill for Long could help her get nominations in other categories too. “Make Me Forget” was an urban AC hit, so expect it in Best Traditional R&B Performance, and Long’s album “Revenge” could easily make a play for Best R&B Album.

Another big hit this year was Tinashe’s “Nasty,” which could give the singer her first nomination or two. It must be noted, though, that songs that don’t do very well on the urban charts tend to underperform at the Grammys, and “Nasty” was only a hit on rhythmic radio. That said, the song’s virality could help it, and the acclaim for her album “Quantum Baby” could also help her nab a spot in Best Progressive R&B Album.

Last year’s winners are looking for more nominations this year too. Pop/R&B superstar SZA is a contender for Best R&B Performance and Best R&B Song for “Saturn,” which spent multiple weeks in the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 and peaked at number-five on urban radio. Last year, SZA took home R&B Song as well as Progressive R&B Album, so voters in this field might still be enthusiastic about her. The song will likely be joined by another radio hit: Coco Jones’s “Here We Go (Uh Oh),” which peaked at number-nine on R&B radio. Jones was nominated across the board last year, and took home Best R&B Performance, so it’s unlikely voters drop her so fast.

There’s also Victoria Monét, who won Best New Artist and Best R&B Album at the last Grammys for her acclaimed “Jaguar II.” This year she might sneak in with her budding hit “SOS (Sex On Sight).” The track could suffer from being too recent, as it’s only just starting to appear on airplay charts. However, Monét might be a new field favorite following her big wins last year, which could mean voters are paying attention to her even with limited visibility. Similarly, last year’s Best Traditional R&B Performance winner was Grammy darling PJ Morton, who will likely be nominated again for his urban AC hit “I Found You,” submitted there and for Best R&B Song.

A few more R&B winners from earlier years are also in contention. Expect Mary J. Blige to grab a nomination somewhere, perhaps Best R&B Performance for her urban AC hit “Breathing.” Lucky Daye’s “That’s You” is one of the year’s biggest R&B hits, so it’s likely a front-runner for Best Traditional R&B Performance and could even make a play for Best R&B Song. The star is also up for Best R&B Album for his well received “Algorithm.”

Daye will have to face superstar Usher, though. He has a lot of hype right now thanks to his gig at the Super Bowl Halftime Show in February. His “Coming Home” was also well received, and might be the highest-profile album on the ballot for Best R&B Album, peaking at number-two on the Billboard 200. Likewise, the Grammys seem to love nominating Chris Brown, so his album “11:11” will likely be nominated, alongside perhaps a nomination for his hit “Residuals” either in Best R&B Performance or Best R&B Song.

For Progressive R&B Album, there are also a few strong contenders. Kehlani’s “Crash” was a success for the star, including the hit “After Hours,” which went viral on TikTok and is competing for Best R&B Song. There’s also the Anderson Paak and Knxwledge collaboration project, NxWorries, which will likely be a top contender to win for their well-received album “Why Lawd?” The duo might even be nominated elsewhere, perhaps Best R&B Performance for “Keep Her” or Best Traditional R&B Performance for “From Here.” Another consistent nominee is soul band Hiatus Kaiyote, who are being considered for their album “Love Heart Cheat Code.”

The category also includes Childish Gambino, whose final album under that name, “Bando Stone and the New World,” features collaborators like Ludwig Goransson, Flo Milli, and Jorja Smith. You might also want to predict Terrace Martin and Alex Isley’s “I Left My Heart in Ladera,” as Martin has not missed this category since nomination review committees were eliminated, and Isley was just nominated for R&B Performance and Song last year.

Another album by a previous Grammy nominee is Chloe’s “Trouble in Paradise.” While her debut album was snubbed last year, this record might fare better due to its superior critical reception. And Black Pumas, who usually compete in the rock field, have their album “Chronicles of a Diamond” competing here. It’s unknown whether R&B voters are fond of the duo, but if they love them as much as Americana and rock voters do, they should get in.

My final R&B Grammy nominations predictions:

Best R&B Performance
Mary J Blige feat. Fabolous, “Breathing”
Chris Brown, “Residuals”
Coco Jones, “Here We Go (Uh Oh)”
Muni Long, “Made for Me (Live)”
Victoria Monét and Usher, “SOS (Sex On Sight)”

Best Traditional R&B Performance
Gary Clark Jr feat. Stevie Wonder, “What About the Children”
Jacob Collier feat. Tori Kelly and John Legend, “Bridge over Troubled Water”
Muni Long, “Make Me Forget”
Lucky Daye, “That’s You”
PJ Morton, “I Found You”

Best R&B Song
“After Hours” (Kehlani)
“Here We Go (Uh Oh)” (Coco Jones)
“I Found You” (PJ Morton)
“Saturn” (SZA)
“That’s You” (Lucky Daye)

Best R&B Album
Chris Brown, “11:11”
Kenyon Dixon, “The R&B You Love”
Muni Long, “Revenge”
Lucky Daye, “Algorithm”
Usher, “Coming Home”

Best Progressive R&B Album
Childish Gambino, “Bando Stone and the New World”
Hiatus Kaiyote, “Love Heart Cheat Code”
Terrace Martin and Alex Isley, “I Left My Heart in Ladera”
NxWorries, “Why Lawd?”
Tinashe, “Quantum Baby”