Tropical depression intensifies into tropical storm as it enters PAR, named Marce

MANILA, Philippines – The tropical depression being monitored by the weather bureau intensified into a tropical storm as it entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 2 am on Monday, November 4.

Its local name is Marce, while its international name is Yinxing.

It is the Philippines’ 13th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the first for November.

The tropical storm was located 935 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas as of 4 am on Monday, moving west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its first bulletin on Marce that rapid intensification is likely.

Marce could strengthen into a severe tropical storm by Tuesday morning or afternoon, November 5, and into a typhoon by Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning, November 6.

While Marce remains far from Philippine landmass, its trough or extension may already cause isolated rain showers or thunderstorms in Eastern Visayas, Bicol, most of Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and Quezon on Monday. Thunderstorms can be severe.

PAGASA added that Marce may enhance the expected surge of the northeasterly windflow, and this might bring more rain — along with the trough of the tropical storm — to extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern part of Luzon starting Monday or Tuesday. Heavy rainfall advisories could be issued as Marce moves toward Northern Luzon.

There are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals yet, but Signal No. 1 may be raised for parts of Cagayan by Tuesday, according to PAGASA.

The highest possible wind signal due to Marce is Signal No. 4.

The northeasterly windflow is also seen to bring strong to gale-force gusts to the following areas:

Monday, November 4

• Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, northern part of Quezon

Tuesday, November 5

• Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte

Wednesday, November 6

• Ilocos Region, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

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PAGASA said Marce is projected to move west northwest to northwest until Wednesday, before starting to slow down “significantly” while turning west. By Wednesday afternoon onwards, it may then move north northwest to west “at a slow pace” over the Philippine Sea east of extreme Northern Luzon.

But the weather bureau said there is still “high uncertainty” regarding Marce’s track — and it is “highly likely to change” — given two possible scenarios:

1. the tropical cyclone will move more toward the west, in the direction of extreme Northern Luzon or mainland Luzon
2. the tropical cyclone will “move erratically” over the Philippine Sea east of extreme Northern Luzon

For the first scenario, PAGASA noted that a westward shift in Marce’s track is likely within 24 hours due to a high pressure area above the tropical storm. This means the area of Marce’s potential landfall later in the week might change from Babuyan Islands in extreme Northern Luzon down to the province of Isabela in mainland Luzon.

For coastal waters, moderate to rough seas are expected in the next 24 hours:

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboards of Batanes and Ilocos Norte – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Seaboards of Babuyan Islands; eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Isabela – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; seaboards of Kalayaan Islands; seaboards of Aurora and Camarines Norte; northern and eastern seaboards of northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur – waves up to 2 meters high

PAGASA previously estimated that one or two tropical cyclones could form within or enter PAR in November. – Rappler.com