Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, soon to be Rafael, moving into the Gulf this week

Potential Tropical Cyclone No. 8 has formed in the southwestern Caribbean this afternoon. This system will likely strengthen further and soon become Rafael as it makes its journey to the north.

A hurricane is possible as it nears Cuba and sits underneath an upper-level anticyclone, giving it low wind shear.

As it moves northward into the eastern Gulf, however, wind shear will begin to increase due to the presence of an upper-level trough. For this reason, the system will likely weaken and become sheared by days four and five, when it's moving northward across the eastern Gulf. Most of the weather should be on the eastern side at that point.

Hopefully, a front may come in and sweep it east of us just beyond the National Hurricane Center forecast, but it's too early to be fully confident in that scenario. We'll continue to monitor.

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