Harris Gets Major Boost in Shock Last-Minute Swing State Predictions

One of Nevada’s foremost election experts has predicted that Kamala Harris will narrowly win the presidential election in the state.

Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, predicted that Harris will beat Donald Trump 48.5 percent to 48.2 percent—a margin of only 0.3 percent.

Ralston predicted that Harris voters would be able to catch up with Republicans’ early lead because the plurality of non–major party voters would ultimately swing for Harris.

“There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans,” Ralston wrote. “The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead—along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause.”

Of the slightly more than one million votes submitted during the mail-in and early voting period, Republicans accounted for 38.4 percent, Democrats 33.6 percent, and nonpartisans and other parties represented 28 percent, according to the Nevada Current.

The winner of Nevada’s presidential election would not be clear on election night, according to Ralston. Results from the Silver State are more likely to come in on Wednesday or Thursday.

Ralston has correctly called the winner of the state’s presidential election for decades, including in 2016 and 2020, when the state went for Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden respectively.

Over the weekend, The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., found that Harris had “leapfrogged” Trump in Iowa and was leading him by 47 percent to 44 percent. The Iowa poll correctly predicted Trump’s victory in the state in 2020 and 2016, and is considered the gold standard of accurate polling.