13 free agents receive Qualifying Offers

And why the Royals likely won’t sign any of these players.

Today is the deadline for teams to make Qualifying Offers to free agents, with 13 players given such an offer:

• Willy Adames, Brewers
• Pete Alonso, Mets
• Alex Bregman, Astros
• Corbin Burnes, Orioles
• Max Fried, Braves
• Teoscar Hernández, Dodgers
• Sean Manaea, Mets
• Nick Martinez, Reds
• Nick Pivetta, Red Sox
• Anthony Santander, Orioles
• Luis Severino, Mets
• Juan Soto, Yankees
• Christian Walker, Diamondbacks

Those players now have until November 19 to decide whether or not to accept the offer and play on a one-year contract of $21.05 million (or re-negotiate a long-term deal with their old team) or decline the offer and become a free agent. If they decline, the old team is given draft compensation, and the signing team must forfeit draft compensation, which can be a drag on the salaries offered.

The amount of compensation depends on the team doing the signing, and the team losing the free agent. Teams that are revenue-sharing recipients, like the Royals, would receive a pick after the first round if the departing free agents signs a deal worth at least $50 million, and after the second round if the deal is less than $50 million. Revenue-sharing payors would receive a pick after the third round, regardless of the amount, and teams over the luxury tax would receive a pick after the fourth round.

For teams that want to sign a free agent, revenue-sharing recipients would have to give up their third-highest draft selection. Revenue-sharing payors would have to give up their second-highest draft selection, and teams over the luxury tax have to give up their second- and fifth-highest draft selections.

So for the Royals, they could have made Michael Wacha a Qualifying Offer, and he almost certainly would have declined, giving them an opportunity at another pick if he had departed. But they worked out a three-year, $51 million to keep him in Kansas City.

If the Royals want to sign a player who rejects a Qualifying Offer - say an Alex Bregman or Anthony Santander - they would have to give up their third-highest pick - which could be a pretty high pick. The Royals will have the 23rd overall pick in the first round, by virtue of their record, but will also likely get a pick after the first round in Competitive Balance Round A (small market teams alternate between Round A and Round B each year - the Royals were in Round B in 2024).

They are also likely to get another pick after the first round due to the new Prospect Promotion Incentive designed to encourage teams to begin the year with top prospects. Because Bobby Witt Jr. was a top 100 prospect and began the 2022 season in the big leagues, he will earn the Royals a draft pick after the first round if he finishes top three in MVP voting, as he almost assuredly will do.

Because of that, it seems unlikely the Royals will sign one of these top free agents and risk forfeiting a pick that could be in the top 40. That doesn’t mean they can’t pursue some other good free agents. Players that have already been given a Qualifying Offer can’t be offered a second time - like Blake Snell - and players traded mid-season cannot be offered - like Jack Flaherty. There were also some good players that were not made a Qualifying Offer for fear they would accept - Red Sox outfielder Tyler O’Neill, for example.