Pac-12 bowl projections: WSU to the Alamo, ASU to Las Vegas and the rapidly shifting trajectories in Los Angeles

In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls that have been affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.

The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.

Please note: We also unveil our weekly CFP picks each Monday.

The first season of their scattered existence has produced a series of plot twists for the former and current Pac-12 schools.

Washington State is ranked; Washington is not.

Arizona State is bowl-eligible; Arizona has lost five in a row.

Utah is looking up — way up — at Brigham Young in the Big 12 standings.

There’s one final twist to mention. It hasn’t materialized but would be the stunner of all stunners given the situation just a few weeks ago.

What if UCLA goes bowling, and USC does not?

That possibility would have been unthinkable after the Bruins lost at home to Minnesota in mid-October and dropped to 1-5.

Across town, the Trojans seemed destined for a bowl berth all along, thanks to their inspired victory over LSU in the season opener and three wins in the opening month.

The early success faded, and it became clear USC would not contend for the Big Ten title or a College Football Playoff berth. But bowl eligibility? The Trojans needed just three wins over the final two months. A bowl bid seemed assured.

And then: collapse.

The loss at Washington last weekend was their fourth in the past five games and left the Trojans (4-5) with zero momentum, difficult bowl math and a new quarterback. ESPN reported on Tuesday morning that Miller Moss has been benched in favor of transfer Jayden Maiava.

They must win two of their final three games to secure a .500 record and third-tier bowl bid.

Can they manage? We aren’t so sure.

The Trojans host reeling Nebraska this weekend. Then comes the annual showdown with UCLA in what stands as a pivotal game for both teams, followed by the finale against No. 10 Notre Dame.

It’s easy to envision USC (4-5) losing to the Bruins and the Irish and sitting home for the holidays while the administration mulls whether to cover coach Lincoln Riley’s buyout, which is believed to be well in excess of $50 million.

Meanwhile, look who’s showing signs of life: The Bruins (3-5) just two took trips across the Rockies and returned home with victories (Rutgers and Nebraska).

Their climb into the postseason remains steep, requiring three wins in their final four games. Iowa will present problems on Friday night — the Hawkeyes are 6.5-point favorites — as will Washington next week (in Seattle). The season concludes with USC and Fresno State visiting the Rose Bowl.

We would not bet on the Bruins winning three — or on the Trojans winning two.

From here, the most likely endgame (reflected in the projections below) has USC beating Nebraska, then losing to UCLA and Notre Dame for a 5-7 finish while the Bruins lose to Iowa and Washington, then beat USC and Fresno State for a … 5-7 finish.

But given UCLA’s current momentum, it won’t take much for an alternate scenario to unfold — for the Bruins to beat either Iowa or UW, then roll through the Trojans and Fresno State to reach the six-win mark.

UCLA bowling and USC at home? That would be a fitting conclusion to this season of twists.

To the projections …

College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten champion)
Comment: The top-ranked Ducks (9-0) are probably one win from becoming a CFP lock. As long as they beat Maryland this weekend, they would qualify for the playoff through the at-large pool even with losses to Wisconsin and Washington.

Alamo Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: The Cougars (7-1) remain on pace for an 11-win season and should be rooting for Colorado, their primary challenger for the Alamo Bowl, to lose at least once. Then again, maybe the Alamo Bowl matches WSU against Colorado.

Holiday Bowl
Team: Colorado
Comment: The ceiling is higher than the floor is low for the Buffaloes (6-2), who are in the hunt for a Big 12 championship and CFP berth. But a late-season fade would not send them plunging down the Pac-12 bowl pecking order given all they have to offer.

Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: Combine an energized fan base with the easy drive to Sin City and the Sun Devils (6-2) make loads of sense for the Las Vegas Bowl, which will have an SEC team on the opposing sideline this year.

Sun Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: We aren’t convinced the Huskies (5-4) will secure their sixth victory — everything (seemingly) hinges on beating UCLA at home next week. But if they clear the bowl bar, a lower-level game awaits.

LA Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: Another team that could finish below .500 or with a flourish. Either way, we don’t see the Bears (4-4) climbing above the Sun Bowl, and that doesn’t leave many options if they become eligible. No way the Independence invites them back — repeat participants are not wanted.

Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona
Comment: Coach Brent Brennan has not announced any staff changes even though the bye week is the perfect time and rock bottom is the perfect place. But something needs to change for the Wildcats (3-6) before Houston pays a visit in 10 days.

Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The Beavers (4-4) won’t be eliminated from the bowl chase if they lose to San Jose State this week, but the math begins to resemble quantum physics considering they need two wins and close with Air Force, then Washington State and Boise State.

Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: On the bright side, the Cardinal (2-7) is done with the airline industry for 2024. The final two road games are in the Bay Area (Cal and San Jose State).

Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: Beat Iowa on Friday night, and everything changes.

Non-qualifier
Team: USC
Comment: The switch to Maiava might make all the difference for the Trojans, but don’t draw any conclusions this weekend. The Cornhuskers have lost three in a row and could not beat UCLA at home.

Non-qualifier
Team: Utah
Comment: A projection we never expected to make. But based on what we have seen from the Utes (4-4) and given the strength of their remaining schedule, it’s the most logical forecast at this point.

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