1st-and-10: Bears seek alternate ending to same movie

If the Bears had responded to the Hail Mary debacle against the Commanders with a supreme performance in a victory over the Cardinals, you know general manager Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus would have been celebrating the team’s character, culture, resilience and leadership.

Well, that works both ways.

After a tumultuous week following a devastating loss — including the mystery over the discipline of cornerback Tyrique Stevenson — the game against the Cardinals was a defining moment for Eberflus and the 2024 Bears. Actions speak louder than leadership-council interventions, and a three-phase failure told us where this team is heading at mid-season. The answer: backwards.

This coaching staff lost its touch last week. When tight end Cole Kmet played just 48% of the offensive snaps in Week 1, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron responded by getting Kmet back to his normal play percentage (from 77% to 81% to 90% in the next three games) and Kmet became the factor everyone expected.

When Waldron was criticized for an ill-advised and ill-fated option play on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line against the Colts in Week 3, Waldron responded by putting back-up center Doug Kramer in the backfield and the Bears scored five touchdowns from the 1 in the following four games. When Keenan Allen’s production became an issue, Allen responded with five critical receptions, including two touchdowns against the Jaguars in London.

But not this time. In a game that was all about mental toughness, coaching, leadership and showing that culture is more than just a buzzword following an excruciating last-play loss, the Bears failed in all three phases. Focused — yet again — on finally getting off to a fast start, the offense failed to score in the first quarter. A week after giving up a Hail Mary, the defense allowed a 53-yard touchdown run with four seconds left in the first half.

And with one last chance to show some gumption, the Bears had no response in the second half. They opened with a three-and-out on offense — Caleb Williams was sacked on the second play — and this game was over. The season? We’ll see about that.

This organization overvalues responding to self-created adversity — the rationale for chairman George McCaskey and president Ted Phillips sticking with GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy after the 2020 season; one rationale for Poles staying with Eberflus after last season; it was even a big part of the evaluation of Williams — how well he handled a three-interception low-moment against Notre Dame last year. Nothing succeeds like failure at Halas Hall.

So here they go again, having to get out of a hole they themselves dug. The difference this time? With six of their last eight games against NFC North rivals — the Lions (7-1), Packers (6-3) and Vikings (6-2), the only way the Bears can make the playoffs after running that gauntlet is by actually becoming a good team. And with a formative offense with a rookie quarterback and a defense missing key players, the Bears not only have to play their way out of this, they have to coach their way out of this.

So with Eberflus’ fate in the balance, when this season is over, if the answer isn’t a clear yes, it is definitely a clear no.

2. Eberflus is Poles’ guy until he’s not. But there’s nothing that can change a GM’s mind like a regressing franchise quarterback. And while it was debatable whether the Bears’ failed Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields more than they failed themselves, the eye-test evidence seems clearer that this offense is dragging Williams down. If his arrow isn’t pointing up by the end of the season, change is almost inevitable.

3. Is Khalil Herbert the next Darnell Mooney? Like Mooney, Herbert was a late-round draft pick by Pace (sixth round in 2021) who was immediately productive before falling out of favor.

Mooney, a fifth-round pick in 2020 who faded last season with the Bears, has thrived with the Falcons under a former Sean McVay assistant in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson.

Mooney has 41 receptions for 588 yards and five touchdowns this season — more catches and yards in nine games with the Falcons and Kirk Cousins than he had in 15 with the Bears and Fields/Tyson Bagent last season. Mooney has career-highs in yards per catch (14.3) and yards per game (65.3). He is second in the NFL with 14 receptions of 20 or more yards (behind Justin Jefferson’s 15).

Herbert, who was traded to the Bengals (and former McVay assistant Zac Taylor) for a 2025 seventh-round draft pick, is in the Mooney mold. He has averaged 95.5 rushing yards per game when he’s had 15 or more carries (205-1,051, 5.1 average in 11 games) and he led the NFL in rushing average (5.7) in 2022, when had 129 carries for 731 yards and four touchdowns.

4. In back to back games, the Bears allowed two demoralizing plays that rarely happen in the NFL.

The Hail Mary touchdown by the Commanders was the first one from a team’s own territory since 2015 (Aaron Rodgers to Richard Rodgers against the Lions). Emari Demercado’s 53-yard touchdown run with four seconds left in the first half Sunday is the only touchdown run of 50 or more yards in the final 25 seconds of a half in the last 30 seasons.

That puts Eberflus in dubious company of low moments. In 2014 under Marc Trestman, the Bears lost to the Patriots 51-23 and Packers 55-14 in back-to-back games. That’s still the only time since 1923 an NFL team has allowed 50 or more points in back-to-back games.

And in 2019 under Nagy, the Bears lost to the Saints with a franchise-low seven rushes, then lost to the Chargers 17-16 when Eddy Pineiro missed a 41-yard field goal on the final play of the game.

5. The four teams the Bears have beaten this season rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in scoring offense or defense — or both: the Titans (28th in scoring, 29th in points allowed), Rams (23rd/22nd), Panthers (29th/32nd) and Jaguars (21st/29th).

6. Red Flag Dept.: It’s generally not a good thing when the emphasis in Week 10 is getting better at running the ball and stopping the run.

“We’re working on exactly what we need to improve on and that starts with the run game on offense and then defense and to me everything falls off of that,” Eberflus said.

The Bears are 19th in rushing yards and 25th in rushing average (they were second and sixth in those categories last season). They are 14th in rushing defense and 23rd in rushing average (they were first/fifth last season).

7. Jim Harbaugh Watch: Harbaugh’s Chargers — without Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams — are 5-3 after a 27-10 victory over the Browns. All of their losses are to first-place teams: the Chiefs (8-0), Steelers (6-2) and Cardinals (5-4).

Fun Fact: The Cardinals tried the Emari Demercado run-on-a-passing-down maneuver against them in the first half in Week 7. Demercado gained 14 yards on third-and-16, the Cardinals punted and the Chargers responded with a field goal as time expired in the first half.

8. Quick Hits: Rome Odunze is the first Bears’ rookie with two 100-yard receiving games since Willie Gault, who had three in 1983. … The Bears have 29 pre-snap penalties, second most per game in the NFL. … The Bears allowed 200 or more rushing yards for the first time since 2022. They are 0-6 when allowing 200 or more rushing yards, losing by 19.7 points per game. … The Bears converted 3 of 14 third-downs (21.4%) against a Cardinals defense that had allowed 45 of 76 (59.2%) third-down conversions in its previous six games.

9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack had a sack, a forced fumble and two tackles for loss in a 27-10 victory over the Browns.

10. Bear-ometer — 6-11: vs. Patriots (W); vs. Packers (L); vs. Vikings (L); at Lions (L); at 49ers (L); at Vikings (L); vs. Lions (L); vs. Seahawks (W); at Packers (L).