Bump and run? Brown breathes new life into Bears, who are this week's best bet
Best Bet
BEARS at 49ERS
Time: 3:25 p.m., Fox 32.
Line: 49ers by 3½.
Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS):
Bears 4-8/6-4-2; 49ers 5-7/4-8.
Interim head coaches are inherently put in a bad spot — almost always taking over a team in such disarray that an in-season change was necessary. New Bears coach Thomas Brown has the additional hurdle of the toughest finishing schedule in the NFL — the defending NFC champion 49ers (5-7), Vikings (10-2), Lions (11-1), Seahawks (7-5) and Packers (9-3).
But, for this week at least, Brown still has a team primed for a classic fire-the-coach bump. The Bears (4-8) aren’t a bad team, they’re a disappointing one — a significant distinction. They’ve lost six consecutive games, but four of them came down to the final play, including three on once-in-a-blue-moon events — the Hail Mary against the Commanders, the blocked field goal against the Packers and the clock-management fiasco against the Lions on Thanksgiving.
And on the field and in the locker room, the Bears’ problem was the head coach. When a coach as well-liked and respected as Matt Eberflus has an All-Pro like Jaylon Johnson snapping at him and teammates at least nodding in agreement, you know the coaching issue was pretty glaring.
And, in a rarity for the Bears in a year their coach was fired (or almost any year, actually), the quarterback is part of the solution and not part of the problem. Rookie Caleb Williams has a 99.2 passer rating (five touchdowns, no interceptions) in his last three games — since Brown became the Bears’ offensive coordinator after Shane Waldron was fired.
Williams put the Bears in position to beat the Packers, Vikings and Lions with fourth-quarter rallies — a 118.9 passer rating (four touchdowns, no interceptions) in those games.
The Bears are likely to rebound, at least in their first game under Brown. There’s already a breath-of-fresh-air feeling in the Bears’ locker room since Eberflus was fired, with players openly acknowledging that a change was necessary. The 49ers are banged up — with running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on injured reserve and defensive end Nick Bosa (oblique) and offensive tackle Trent Williams (ankle) among the injured.
And history gives the Bears a fighting chance. Over the last five years, teams that were a combined 30-83-1 (.268) when the head coach was fired are 7-6 (.538) straight up and 10-3 against the spread in the first game under the interim coach.
Pick: Bears 24, 49ers 20.
OTHER TOP PLAYS
JETS at DOLPHINS
Time: Noon.
Line: Dolphins by 6½.
Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jets 3-9/3-9; Dolphins 5-7/5-7.
Outlook: The Dolphins’ three-game winning streak was snapped in a 30-17 loss to the host Packers, but they are rarely if ever good in cold weather and figure to bounce back in the mid-70s temperatures of Miami. Tua Tagovailoa still on a roll — 365 yards, 2 TDs, 114.2 rating — despite five sacks vs. the Pack. Jets have been competitive but are 1-8 SU/ATS in their last nine games.
Pick: Dolphins 31, Jets 20.
RAIDERS at BUCCANEERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Buccaneers by 7.
Total: 47.
Records (overall/ATS):Raiders 2-10/5-7; Buccaneers 6-6/7-5.
Outlook: In a span of four weeks, the Bucs have gone to OT against both the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (losing 30-24) and the 3-8 Panthers (winning 26-23 last week). Raiders also played the Chiefs tough — losing 19-17 last week. But the first time they did that, they lost 41-24 to the Bengals the next week.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Raiders 17.
BENGALS at COWBOYS
Time: 7:15 p.m., Monday, ESPN/ABC 7.
Line: Bengals by 5½.
Total: 49½
Records (overall/ATS):Bengals 4-8/6-6; Cowboys 5-7/4-7-1.
Outlook: With their playoff chances diminished after losing three straight (Ravens, Chargers, Steelers), Joe Burrow and the Bengals are looking to take it out on a lesser team and the Dak-less Cowboys fit that bill. Burrow has a 108.7 rating in his last four games (15 TDs, 2 INTs).
Pick: Bengals 36, Cowboys 27.
THE REST OF THE GAMES
FALCONS at VIKINGS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Vikings by 5½. Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 6-6/5-7; Vikings 10-2/7-4-1.
Outlook: The Vikings look like the worst 10-win team in the NFL after surviving vs. the Bears (30-27 in OT) and Cardinals (23-22) the last two weeks. It’s reminiscent of 2022, when the 13-4 Vikes looked headed for a fall after going an improbable 11-0 in one-score games — and flopped in the playoffs at home vs. the Giants. Kirk Cousins saying all the right things, but he’ll be pumped for this one.
Pick: Falcons 31, Vikings 28.
PANTHERS at EAGLES
Time: Noon.
Line: Eagles by 13. Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 3-9/5-7; Eagles 10-2/8-4.
Outlook: Eagles have won eight straight (and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven) after beating the Ravens 24-19 on the road last week. The Panthers have found some footing with Bryce Young reinserted at QB — 2-2 SU/4-0 ATS in their last four. But red-hot Saquon Barkley (a league-best 124.9 rushing yards per game) vs. the Panthers 32nd-ranked rushing defense (166.8 average) has blowout potential.
Pick: Eagles 34, Panthers 17.
BROWNS at STEELERS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: Steelers by 7. Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Browns 3-9/4-8; Steelers 9-3/9-3.
Outlook: The Steelers will be out to avenge a 24-19 loss to the Browns in the snow three weeks ago in Cleveland. Mike Tomlin has never been swept by the Browns in his 17-plus seasons with the Steelers (26-8-1 SU/18-16-1 ATS). In fact, the Steelers haven’t been swept by the Browns since 1988 under Chuck Noll. Steelers are 5-1 SU/ATS since Russell Wilson replaced Justin Fields as the starting QB.
Pick: Steelers 24, Browns 14.
SAINTS at GIANTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Saints by 4½. Total: 41.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 4-8/5-7; Giants 2-10/2-9-1.
Outlook: The upstreaming Giants are at home and on long rest coming off a 27-20 loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but they have lost seven straight (0-7 ATS) and are down to their third QB. Drew Lock (178 yards, 66.9 rating vs. Dallas) gets his second start in place of backup Tommy DeVito. Saints lost Taysom Hill (torn ACL) for the season.
Pick: Saints 23, Giants 17.
TITANS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon.
Line: Titans by 3½. Total: 39.
Records (overall/ATS): Titans 3-9/2-10; Jaguars 2-10/6-5-1.
Outlook: The Jaguars rallied behind Mac Jones (235 yards, 2 TDS, 105.6 passer rating) in a 23-20 loss to the Texans after Trevor Lawrence suffered a concussion on a controversial hit by Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaair. But can they sustain it with Jones starting? In two starts before Lawrence returned from a previous injury last week, Jones had a 48.6 passer rating (124.5 ypg, 0 TDs, 3 INTs).
Pick: Titans 17, Jaguars 17 (OT).
SEAHAWKS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 2½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Seahawks 7-5/5-6-1; Cardinals 6-6/8-4.
Outlook: The Seahawks contained Kyler Murray and won convincingly (16-6) at Lumen Field two weeks ago, but the Cardinals figure to respond at home after a tough loss to the 10-2 Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium — 23-22 on a Vikings TD with 1:13 to go. Murray, though has to be better than he has been — passer ratings of 77.0 and 72.5 (1 TD, 3 INTs) in the losses to the Seahawks and Vikings.
Pick: Cardinals 24, Seahawks 17.
BILLS at RAMS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Bills by 4½. Total: 49.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 10-2/8-4; Rams 6-6/5-7.
Outlook: Rams need a strong finish to make the playoffs, while the Bills already have clinched the AFC East. Traveling cross-country isn’t ideal for the Bills, but they’ve had so many postseason disappointments recently that they are less likely to take their foot off the gas and more likely to keep pushing hard for the No. 1 seed. Then again, they’re trying to win, not necessarily cover, so tough call.
Pick: Bills 27, Rams 23.
CHARGERS at CHIEFS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Chiefs by 3½. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 8-4/8-4; Chiefs 11-1/5-7.
Outlook: The Chiefs are holding off surgery to get the horseshoe out of their backside until after the season — tentatively scheduled for Feb. 10. They won 19-17 last week after the Raiders botched a shotgun snap and fumbled — and had an illegal shift penalty — while in long field goal range with 0:15 left. Nobody makes you play stupid like Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 20.