Will the Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Last?
A week after Israel announced its acceptance of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Hezbollah, the fragile peace was put to the test. On Monday, Dec. 2, Hezbollah launched mortars into northern Israeli territory, forcing the Israel Air Force (IAF) to carry out strikes in southern Lebanon. The following day, Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that if Hezbollah continues to breach the ceasefire agreement and the Lebanese Army (LAF) fails to enforce it, Israel will not distinguish between Hezbollah militants and their Lebanese hosts in future attacks.
“We will work with all our might to enforce all the understandings of the ceasefire agreement, and we show maximum response and zero tolerance,” Katz reiterated during a recent visit to the north of Israel. “Yesterday was the first test,” he continued, referring to the mortar fire, “[and] we reacted strongly, and this is exactly what we will do, and we will not allow Hezbollah to return to the old methods they had.”
The U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal arrived in the Middle East two weeks ago when Special Envoy Amos Hochstein negotiated between Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri — speaking on behalf of Hezbollah — and officials in Jerusalem. On the night of Nov. 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the cabinet accepted the deal, and a ceasefire went into effect the following morning.
The stipulations require that within 60 days Hezbollah withdraw north of the Litani River and for Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon behind the “Blue Line” Israel-Lebanese border. The LAF, with support from U.N. peacekeeping forces (UNIFIL), will stand in as the sole armed force between the river and the border to ensure the withdrawal of both parties. An international committee of European and Arab delegates, commanded by the U.S. and France, will oversee the peace process and support the LAF and UNIFIL mission.
The deal is a mirror image of the failed U.N. Resolution 1701 drafted at the end of the last Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2006. Israel was the only party that complied and withdrew behind the Blue Line days after the U.N. resolution was passed. Hezbollah remained in place while the LAF and UNIFIL turned a blind eye to the terrorist organization’s rapid armament and military occupation of southern Lebanon.
The historic failure of international actors to enforce the U.N. resolution over the next two decades resulted in the situation we have today: an emboldened Hezbollah with an impressive arsenal and military infrastructure capable of carrying out a year-long war against Israel.
The current ceasefire arrangement is merely the failed U.N. Resolution 1701 repackaged as a U.S.-brokered deal.
The timing, however, is significant. The Biden White House and signatories of Resolution 1701 saw little urgency to push a ceasefire during the 12 months that Hezbollah rained over 20,000 rockets, missiles, and drones on Israeli cities, exposing its full measure of violations and disregard for international laws and human rights.
The need for cessation only emerged after Israeli ground forces entered southern Lebanon at the end of September in a mission to push Hezbollah further north and dismantle its armaments. In other words, Israel’s campaign to enforce Resolution 1701 in southern Lebanon demanded an urgent ceasefire agreement and a withdrawal of forces so that a repackaged 1701 could be implemented by the same actors who abandoned it in the first place. (RELATED: The UN’s Failure in Lebanon)
The deal also comes in the twilight hours of President Joe Biden’s tenure when his legacy and the legacy of the Democratic Party are on the line. Biden seems to be following the precedent written by past administrations (Carter and Clinton come to mind) to rush a slapdash Israel–Arab peace deal to the table to cement a positive legacy at the last minute.
The differences between the current ceasefire arrangement and its 2006 prototype leave large enough loopholes that almost guarantee failure. The current deal requires Hezbollah to retreat but does not demand disarmament. Nor is there any language about severing Hezbollah’s supply lines and communication with Syria, Iraq, or Iran. Essentially, the ceasefire acknowledges Hezbollah’s hegemonic military presence in the region, respects its raison d’etre, and only mandates Lebanese and U.N. peacekeepers to politely ask them to step away from the Israeli border.
Having felt the brunt of past failed resolutions, Israel secured concessions this time to pre-emptively act on Lebanese soil if Hezbollah shows signs of infraction or aggression. “If Hezbollah tries to re-arm, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, digs a tunnel, brings in a truck of missiles, we will attack,” Netanyahu affirmed in his ceasefire announcement early last week.
With the exact language of the agreement still surfacing, it’s unclear if Israel’s military freedom is part of the official deal or a side arrangement guaranteed by the U.S. When details of the initial agreement leaked before Hochstein reached Beirut three weeks ago, the vague language only permitted Israel to file a complaint with the international oversight committee if an infraction was suspected from Hezbollah. Only after a review of the complaint would the committee decide if Israeli intervention on sovereign Lebanese soil was necessary. From the start, the objective of the deal appeared more bent on handicapping Israel than Hezbollah.
Last week, while U.S. and French officials were pressuring Beirut and Jerusalem to play by the rules, Israeli jets carried out airstrikes on the top Hezbollah leader near the Damascus International Airport. Maintaining a fragile facade of peace between the Litani River and Blue Line has perhaps motivated belligerents to continue the fight elsewhere.
Hezbollah can easily be subsumed into the other ranks of Iran’s axis — such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, and Houthi — and Israel has made it clear they will respond to any threat in or beyond Lebanon. The scuffles earlier this week show that both sides are testing how well the ceasefire deal holds water and how committed the international mediators are to enforcing peace.
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