Are the Cavs overly reliant on three-pointers?: ‘Would you ask Boston that question?’
The Cavs picked up their 17th win of the season when they shoot over 35% from three.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were outscored in the restricted area 56-26 by the Denver Nuggets. Getting more than doubled up in points at the rim is traditionally a cause for concern. It wasn’t for the Cavs on Thursday. In fact, the game wasn’t even close. That’s because Cleveland outscored Denver by 48 from beyond the arc.
This has been a common theme for the Cavs. They’re now 17-0 when they shoot over 35% from three and 3-3 when they don’t.
Are the Cavs overly reliant on the three-pointers?
I asked Donovan Mitchell that question after reciting those numbers.
“Would you ask Boston that question?” Mitchell asked. “I’m not trying to be an asshole at all when I say that.”
I said no. It’s impossible to question the Boston Celtics’s formula. But it’s fair to wonder if the Cavs are capable of following that blueprint, especially after poor outside shooting did them in during the last two postseasons as they went 31.5% and 30.6% from three.
At the same time, they have no choice but to try playing that style.
“That’s the name of the game right now,” Mitchell said. “That’s what it is. Just pace and space.”
That has worked for the Cavaliers so far this season. They’re leading the league shooting 40.5% from three. Kenny Atkinson spent the first month of the season saying that their outside shooting was going to regress. Now, we’re over a quarter of the way through the season and it hasn’t. Maybe this is just who they are.
“It’s starting to be real,” Atkinson said. “This deep into the season, you have to respect our shooting.”
The personnel is nearly the same from last postseason. The difference is the type of looks they’re generating now. The increased ball and player movement has led to this.
“The actions, the spacing, our pace, you know, that’s not predictable,” Mitchell said. “You never know where the guy is going to be. I think that’s what really helps. We’re getting open shots too.”
They certainly are getting clean looks. The Cavs currently lead the league in wide-open three-point percentage as they’re knocking down 46.6% of those attempts. Last season they were hitting 39.6% of those shots which was around league average.
It’s fair to point out that the drastic improvement shows that the Cavs are likely hitting shots above their expected quota. At the same time, the better percentages speak to how they’re also creating more open looks for better shooters which is what good offenses do. Not all open threes are the same. A deeper look at who’s taking those shots confirms this. Mitchell, Georges Niang, and Sam Merrill are all taking more wide-open threes than they were last season. That’s the sign of a healthy offense.
“Just continuing to make the right play,” Mitchell said. “We have guys that can get in the paint. When you’re creating those shots it’s open looks.”
Complete basketball teams that shoot the three-ball well win in the playoffs. The Cavaliers are a complete basketball team. They’ve shown that over the last two seasons and again this year. Even though the defense has struggled at times, they’re still within the top ten and are trending in the right direction. The offense has also shown that they can generate good looks inside. They’re finishing and creating more shots at the rim this season.
The Cavs aren’t a one-dimensional team, but their leap from being a good team to being a title contender is because of the three-point shot. The outside shot will determine how far they go in the playoff. Although, you could say that about any team that has title aspirations.
“You look at the teams that won, the Golden State’s, the Boston’s, being able to create and have so many different threats that become unpredictable,” Mitchell said.
“So no, I don’t think [we’re overly reliant on threes]. I think if we were shooting contested threes and stepbacks and all those different things, that’s when you kind of get into that. I don’t think we’re into that.”