Has Keir Starmer's 'Plan For Change' Sown The Seeds For His Own Downfall?

It is just six months since Keir Starmertold HuffPost UK that he wanted politics “to tread more lightly on people’s lives”.

After years of constitutional referendums, scandals, rows and a seemingly never-ending parade of Tory prime ministers, the then opposition leader believed that the government should quietly get on with the job and leave voters in peace.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile that reasonable aim with the reality of Starmer’s first five months in power.

Since July, the public have witnessed a blizzard of policy announcements, the biggest tax-raising Budget in more than 30 years, high-profilesackings, a No.10 reorganisation and a cabinet minister forced to resign in disgrace.

This hyperactivity culminated in the prime minister unveiling his “plan for change” on Thursday, setting out the six key policies he wants voters to judge Labour on between now and the next election.

Labour will, he said, make people better off, build 1.5 million homes, get more children ready to start school, bring down hospital waits, recruit thousands more neighbourhood police and de-carbonise the electricity grid by 2030.

These promises are definitely not to be confused with Labour’s five missions for government, which Starmer launched nearly two years ago, or indeed the six pledges he made during the general election campaign.

While Downing Street officials were at pains to deny it, it looked and felt like a much-needed reset for a government which has been on the back foot almost from the day it was elected.

Keiran Pedley, director of politics at pollsters Ipsos, said: “It’s not surprising that they’re trying to reassert themselves because, as we’ve seen over the summer and more recently, Starmer’s personal ratings have fallen.

“In July his approval ratings were still net positive, but now he’s on minus 29. We also had polling which showed 53% of voters are disappointed with how Labour have done so far.”

Pedley blamed “a perception that they’ve broken their promises”, ongoing concerns about the state of the economy and unhappiness with policies like removing winter fuel payments from 10 million pensioners for the precipitous fall in the government’s popularity.

“There’s definitely a feeling that it hasn’t started well for Labour, which is reflected in the polling,” he said.

“They’re trying to take charge of the agenda, but the risk is that people don’t actually pay that much attention.

“People voted Labour for a change and to fix the economy and that ultimately is what they will be judged by.”

Pedley also warned that Starmer’s avalanche of promises could end up being counter-productive.

“The problem is you say too much about what your priorities are to the point where it all gets a bit lost,” he said.

“A few weeks ago the PM said illegal migration was one of his top two priorities, but then it wasn’t even one of the six milestones. If you’re going to tell the public ‘judge me on this thing’ you need to be consistent about what those things are.

“You can have six milestones, five missions and a partridge in a pear tree, but the fundamental things they need to do is fix the NHS and turn the economy around.”

The main drivers behind the plan for change have been Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s chief of staff, and Pat McFadden, the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

Those close to the process insist it has been in the pipeline since shortly after the election, rather than a response to the government’s ongoing woes.

“I get why people are saying it’s a relaunch or a reset, and sometimes that is a valid criticism, but on this occasion it genuinely isn’t,” said one senior No.10 source.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said Starmer’s speech may actually do him some good with the electorate.

He told HuffPost UK: “For regular political watchers, having another technical list to keep track of isn’t ideal, but the public won’t likely care about much of that anyway.

“Labour promised change, and the UK public are utterly clear that means improvement to living standards and public services.

“If Starmer got an opportunity to communicate that to voters, then it will have been seen as a good day in No.10.”

Senior Labour figures are less sympathetic, however.

One said: “Since being PM, Keir’s had four big moments - outside No.10 on day one, the King’s Speech, party conference and now the plan for change. And people still have no idea what he stands for or what the government wants to achieve.”

Others are scathing about the No.10 operation, which only recently underwent a huge shake-up following the sacking of Sue Gray, McSweeney’s predecessor as chief of staff.

A party insider described the prime minister’s speech as “pretty incoherent”, while another said: “I’m afraid Morgan can’t blame Sue forever.”

Even new Labour MPs have started criticising Starmer’s performance, with one asking a colleague: “How do we put him out of our misery?”

But the PM’s supporters insist he and the government are on the right track, and that Labour will eventually reap the reward for decisions being taken now.

One ally told HuffPost UK: “The original five missions were about the long-term direction of a Labour government, but there’s now a real keenness to make them a bit more tangible so that people can see as the parliament goes on what it is we’re trying to achieve. It’s a way of holding ourselves to account.

“Look at the housebuilding pledge, for example. That’s really challenging because over the last couple of years the number of new homes being built has fallen off a cliff.

“But we want to send out a really strong signal to the public and to the civil service that these are our aims.

“We’re hoping that by setting these targets very high it will drive us on and, by the time of the next election, people will feel the difference a Labour government can make.

“If you push yourself hard you can achieve more. And what’s government for if it isn’t that?”

On the same day as the PM’s speech, a shock poll put Reform UK ahead of Labour for the first time.

It remains to be seen whether that was an outlier or a sign of things to come. Starmer had better hope his new targets have the desired effect on those around him, or the next four years will be even more difficult than the last five months.