Prediction of undernutrition and identification of its influencing predictors among under-five children in Bangladesh using explainable machine learning algorithms

by Md. Merajul Islam, Nobab Md. Shoukot Jahan Kibria, Sujit Kumar, Dulal Chandra Roy, Md. Rezaul Karim

Background and objectives

Child undernutrition is a leading global health concern, especially in low and middle-income developing countries, including Bangladesh. Thus, the objectives of this study are to develop an appropriate model for predicting the risk of undernutrition and identify its influencing predictors among under-five children in Bangladesh using explainable machine learning algorithms.

Materials and methods

This study used the latest nationally representative cross-sectional Bangladesh demographic health survey (BDHS), 2017–18 data. The Boruta technique was implemented to identify the important predictors of undernutrition, and logistic regression, artificial neural network, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) were adopted to predict undernutrition (stunting, wasting, and underweight) risk. The models’ performance was evaluated through accuracy and area under the curve (AUC). Additionally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were employed to illustrate the influencing predictors of undernutrition.

Results

The XGB-based model outperformed the other models, with the accuracy and AUC respectively 81.73% and 0.802 for stunting, 76.15% and 0.622 for wasting, and 79.13% and 0.712 for underweight. Moreover, the SHAP method demonstrated that the father’s education, wealth, mother’s education, BMI, birth interval, vitamin A, watching television, toilet facility, residence, and water source are the influential predictors of stunting. While, BMI, mother education, and BCG of wasting; and father education, wealth, mother education, BMI, birth interval, toilet facility, breastfeeding, birth order, and residence of underweight.

Conclusion

The proposed integrating framework will be supportive as a method for selecting important predictors and predicting children who are at high risk of stunting, wasting, and underweight in Bangladesh.