Nvidia could deliver a big surprise to Wall Street that would 'power up' its profitability, analyst says
SAM YEH/Getty, Tyler Le/BI
- Nvidia could release its next-next-generation Rubin GPU six months earlier than expected, an analyst predicted.
- The early release could boost Nvidia's 2026 revenue growth beyond consensus estimates of 30%.
- Nvidia's stock has surged 193% this year, following a 236% return in 2023.
Nvidia could deliver a big surprise to Wall Street that would "power up" its earnings, a recent note from Melius Research said.
The potential surprise? An earlier-than-expected release of its next-next-generation GPU chip, Rubin.
According to Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes, signs are building that Nvidia could release its Rubin GPU chip six months before Wall Street is expecting it.
"While Nvidia told us before that Rubin was a CY26 release, we believe investors were anchored to the C2H, heavily weighted to 4Q 'in volume' due to supply chain indications," Reitzes explained.
Instead, Nvidia could roll out its Rubin chip in the first half of 2026, which would be ahead of schedule.
Reitzes said there are signs that suggest an early release, including reports that Nvidia is encouraging SK Hynix to ready its next-generation memory sooner, Taiwanese partners reportedly working on designs for Rubin-based AI servers, and signs that suggest TSMC is planning to expand its advanced packaging capacity accordingly.
Nvidia announced Rubin in June. It is the successor to the company's Blackwell GPU, which is expected to see a ramped-up rollout in the first few months of next year.
If the reports prove accurate, then an earlier-than-expected debut of the Rubin chip could help Nvidia deliver 2026 revenue growth that's higher than consensus estimates of around 30%.
An early release would also blunt investor concerns around an AI bubble and the "law of large number" computing limitations.
"Accelerating the Rubin release (likely a blockbuster - with blazing speeds, lower power and tons of memory) would blunt some of these concerns and could increase target multiples on the buyside," Reitzes said.
He added: "EPS would theoretically 'power up' sooner."
Reitzes ultimately expects Nvidia to deliver earnings per share of $5.55 in calendar-year 2026, which, at a 35x profit multiple, delivers a $195 price target. That represents potential upside of 34% from current levels.
And if Rubin isn't released early, that wouldn't invalidate the bull thesis for Nvidia stock, he added.
"Look, as evidenced by Blackwell, launches are rarely 'early' despite best efforts. So, if Rubin launches a little sooner, it's a 'nice to have' or maybe a 'thesis accelerator' - but not critical to the long-term story," Reitzes said.
Shares of Nvidia have been on a tear this year, soaring 193%. That's after Nvidia's dizzying 2023 return of 236%.
A spokesperson for Nvidia declined to comment.