NFL Week 17 picks — NFL Playoff futures entering Week 17
Good luck finding someone as interested as I am in every minor machination the NFL offers. Conflicting schematics altered in real time, played out on the field by the world’s best athletes in spectacular crashes of humanity. That said, the quality of those Christmas Day games was worse than my in-laws’ baked ziti. Yuck. The worst.
Here’s an idea. Maybe rather than risking player health and product quality by forcing ridiculous schedule turnarounds, we enjoy a holiday without football for once. I’m pretty sure we’d survive just fine.
Sorry for coming down so hard on the schedule makers, who set us up for a really nice holiday encore all weekend. Believe it or not, the majority of games being played come with significant postseason impact. Just when you thought nothing on Earth could get you to watch the 2024 New York Football Giants, guess again. We’ll get into what that game means for Indy and the entire AFC playoff picture later on.
Then, not only is there no definitive No. 1 seed yet in the NFC, but we still have two divisions up for grabs. If the Rams lose to the Cardinals, we get the double-super-secret bonus—a Week 18 head-to-head matchup for a ticket to the big dance. Oh, how sweet it is.
Strap up and strap in, people. The next two weeks could make history…But first, The Watercooler!
THE WATERCOOLER
The 5 links that will change your life week day afternoon next few minutes
- Postseason fantasy games. Bah. Postseason fantasy games where the lowest-scoring team gets cut every week? SIGN ME UP!!
- Attention dynasty leaguers! The time to trade for Bryce Young has probably passed. The time to trade AWAY Bryce Young? Please, have a seat.
- Can we please, PLEASE have just one week without a one-yard-line kneel?
- Week 17 rankings! What do we do with Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill?
- Our latest NFL Mock Draft is here. We have six skill players in the first seven picks!
CHART OF THE WEEK
Each week we present the league through the lens of a single image. While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense’s likelihood to score.
It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with.
NOTE: The cross is league average. Also, positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance in both phases.
TAKEAWAYS: After an entire season of the usual suspects populating the top-right corner, we’re finally seeing a changing of the EPA guard. Strong defensive play from BUF and DET kept them atop the leaderboard for so long I started assuming it as a given. Well, injuries plus poor play can change that in a blink—the Lions and Bills make up half the teams to allow more than 115 points and 6.0 yards/play this month. Regardless of how prolific either offense is on any given day, taking down a championship gets increasingly more difficult as your opponents approach 28 on the scoreboard. Make way for the new Fab Four—GB, BAL, DEN, and TB.
All but Tampa have essentially packed their bags for the dance, currently holding down a multiple-game lead in the playoff standings. Sunday night’s loss to Dallas really stung as the Northeast’s biggest Bucs backer but there’s still hope. As composed as Michael Penix looked in his debut, he’s still a rookie, and Washington’s an order of magnitude better than the Giants. They’ll both face the feisty Panthers except TB gets the Saints in the season finale, and they were just blanked in rather embarrassing fashion.
Mark GB and BAL for strong pops to come from mid-pack to make a deep playoff run, hitting their stride at just the right time. Denver’s in a really unique scenario, one that I’ll get to in more detail below.
BETS OF THE WEEK
THE BETS: Bengals (+1800; FD), Colts (+900; DK), Dolphins (+1400; DK), To Make Playoffs
Only one of these can happen but the more I go down this current AFC postseason rabbit hole, the more likely I think it happens. Plus, it’s so much fun to root for craziness to unfold. Essentially, we’re betting against the Broncos and the way the entire landscape’s schedule shook out.
Denver heads to Cincinnati Saturday to face Joe Burrow and the NFL’s hottest offense. Nothing’s changed for the Bengals—lose and pack your striped bags. Win, and there’s an ember glowing, no matter how faint it may be. Denver’s still in the lead with a loss, but then hosts KC in Week 18. The public’s first instinct will be that Andy Reid’s sitting his starters with home field clinched, but I’m not sure. Yes, Patrick Mahomes sat Week 18 in 2021, but KC had to play the next week. The Chiefs added pieces mid-season to an offense just starting to fire on all cylinders. Will Kansas City really take 24 days before meaningful snaps? Expect at least one half from the Chiefs we all know and love. Bottom line? It’s far from a cakewalk to the dance for the Broncos.
The Colts couldn’t ask for more than a chance to control their own destiny after an impressive win over Tennessee last week. Indy heads to MetLife Stadium on Sunday to face the bottom-feeding Giants before closing at home with a shot at revenge against 3-12 Jacksonville. Anthony Richardson gets his shot to silence the haters as a TD favorite. How can you not love that?
And we can’t forget the Dolphins, who swim back to Miami for the summer with a loss but can squeak their way in with some help. They’ll spend the next two weeks rooting against Denver and Indianapolis from the road at CLE and NYJ in winnable, yet must-win games to close out.
If Cincinnati, Miami, and Indy all handle their business and beat the Broncos, I’d expect these odds to be sliced in half at a minimum by Monday.
NOTE: Whenever playing longer odds, reduce risk accordingly. Once a play hits longshot territory, let’s call it (+300) or higher, I scale bets down to one-tenth of my standard betting unit (or 0.10u). Odds get listed this high for a reason. Always play responsibly, and feel free to reach out to me with bankroll management questions.
Hope you enjoyed today’s column! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing from you all!