Timothée Chalamet, Demi Moore out front in initial SAG Awards odds

The Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations were announced on Jan. 8, with Wicked and Shōgun leading their respective movie and TV fields at five bids apiece. More than 1,200 people have already voted for the SAG winners in Gold Derby‘s prediction polls, and some of the contenders with early leads include Wicked for film ensemble, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) for film actor, Demi Moore (The Substance) for film actress, Hacks for comedy ensemble, and Shōgun for drama ensemble.

Below, see a snapshot in time of our odds for the 2025 SAG Awards in all 15 categories, updated on Jan. 10, 2025. Our predicted winners are denoted in gold.

This annual event was created in 1995 to reward the acting guild’s members who appear on camera in film and on television. Nominating committees of about 2,500 people selected the nominees, and then the full membership, which consists of about 130,000 SAG-AFTRA union members, will choose the ultimate winners. See how SAG voting works.

Due to wildfires and adverse wind conditions in Los Angeles, the live presentation of this year’s nominees was canceled. Instead, a press release announced all six movie categories and nine TV races. As usual, there are ensemble categories for casts and stunts, plus individual races for film (separated by lead and supporting) and television (separated by comedy, drama, and limited).

Gold Derby‘s SAG Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, top 24 users who had the best accuracy scores last year, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the awards races by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in our forums.

SEE Make your SAG Awards predictions right now — it’s fun and easy!

The 31st annual Screen Actors Guild Awards will stream live on Netflix (its new home) on Sunday, Feb. 23 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT. Nobody Wants This nominee Kristen Bell is hosting the kudos for the second time after originally emceeing the 2018 ceremony.

BEST FILM ENSEMBLE

1. Wicked — 31/10
2. Anora — 4/1
3. Emilia Pérez — 4/1
4. Conclave — 9/2
5. A Complete Unknown — 9/2

BEST FILM ACTRESS

1. Demi Moore (The Substance) — 16/5
2. Mikey Madison (Anora) — 19/5
3. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) — 4/1
4. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) — 9/2
5. Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) — 5/1

BEST FILM ACTOR

1. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) — 82/25
2. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) — 18/5
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) — 9/2
4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) — 9/2
5. Daniel Craig (Queer) — 9/2

BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) — 82/25
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) — 7/2
3. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) — 9/2
4. Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl) — 9/2
5. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) — 9/2

BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) — 59/20
2. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) — 4/1
3. Yura Borisov (Anora) — 9/2
4. Jonathan Bailey (Wicked) — 9/2
5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) — 9/2

BEST FILM STUNT ENSEMBLE

1. The Fall Guy — 69/20
2. Dune: Part Two — 19/5
3. Deadpool and Wolverine — 4/1
4. Wicked — 9/2
5. Gladiator II — 9/2

BEST TV COMEDY ENSEMBLE

1. Hacks — 10/3
2. The Bear — 37/10
3. Only Murders in the Building — 9/2
4. Abbott Elementary — 9/2
5. Shrinking — 9/2

BEST TV COMEDY ACTRESS

1. Jean Smart (Hacks) — 31/10
2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) — 4/1
3. Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) — 9/2
4. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — 9/2
5. Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear) — 9/2

BEST TV COMEDY ACTOR

1. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) — 10/3
2. Harrison Ford (Shrinking) — 19/5
3. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — 9/2
4. Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside) — 9/2
5. Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) — 9/2

BEST TV DRAMA ENSEMBLE

1. Shōgun — 31/10
2. The Diplomat — 4/1
3. Slow Horses — 4/1
4. Bridgerton — 9/2
5. The Day of the Jackal — 9/2

BEST TV DRAMA ACTRESS

1. Anna Sawai (Shōgun) — 31/10
2. Kathy Bates (Matlock) — 4/1
3. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — 4/1
4. Allison Janney (The Diplomat) — 9/2
5. Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton) — 9/2

BEST TV DRAMA ACTOR

1. Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun) — 31/10
2. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — 4/1
3. Tadanobu Asano (Shōgun) — 9/2
4. Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal) — 9/2
5. Jeff Bridges (The Old Man) — 9/2

BEST TV LIMITED/MOVIE ACTRESS

1. Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country) — 71/20
2. Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer) — 19/5
3. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) — 5/1
4. Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) — 11/2
5. Kathy Bates (The Great Lillian Hall) — 13/2
6. Lily Gladstone (Under the Bridge) — 7/1

BEST TV LIMITED/MOVIE ACTOR

1. Colin Farrell (The Penguin) — 82/25
2. Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer) — 37/10
3. Andrew Scott (Ripley) — 4/1
4. Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 9/2
5. Kevin Kline (Disclaimer) — 9/2

BEST TV STUNT ENSEMBLE

1. Shōgun — 31/10
2. The Penguin — 4/1
3. Fallout — 9/2
4. The Boys — 9/2
5. House of the Dragon — 9/2

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